The obsession with Pedro Feliz
There's a temptation to just write this off as desperation, but it really does appear that Giants management, Felipe Alou and even Giants fans believe that Pedro Feliz is actually a good player, and that getting Feliz more ABs is going to help the team. Sometimes I feel like I'm living in an alternate universe where none of what I know to be true is actually fact. Let's address the positives first:
1. Pedro Feliz is currently hitting. .292: It's true, Mr. Feliz is hitting .292 (19 for 65).
2. Pedro Feliz hit 16 home runs in only 235 ABs in 2003.
3. Pedro Feliz is young and cheap.
Responding to each of these, with negatives attached:
1. There is nothing in the history of Pedro Feliz that indicates that he's anything approaching a .300 hitter in the major leagues. In 673 ABs thus far he's hit .247. In 7 seasons in the minors Feliz hit .268 over 2,433 ABs. So let's review - hit .268 in the minors, hit .247 in the majors over 3 seasons (albeit in limited playing time), hitting .292 in 65 ABs in April. Right, so if there's going to be a reason to play Feliz it had better not be his batting average.
2. It's true, he hit 16 homers in 2003 and had a slugging percentage of .515 doing it. He also made an out 177 of the 268 times he came up to the plate (72.2% out percentage to go with his .278 on-base average). I believe 2003 represents Feliz' career season. His home run power is real, and pitchers hadn't realized yet that he has utterly no strike zone judgement, and occasionally threw him a pitch to hit. He's sort of the anti Barry Bonds: it makes no sense to throw Barry a strike because it's better to walk him, and if you throw him one he'll whack it out of the park. Well, Feliz will also wack it out of the park, but if you throw him balls in the dirt you won't walk him - he'll swing harmlessly over them and get himself out.
3. Well, he's cheap. Feliz aged during the post-9/11 revelation of true player ages. In fact, he's 29, not 26 as originally thought. At 29 it's unlikely that Feliz develops into anything other than what he currently is (and no, I'm not saying here that a player can't develop plate discipline or strike zone judgement later in a career, because it has happened before), and what he currently is is a player who can't tell a ball from a strike and never has been able to.
His age puts in greater perspective his minor-league career season in 2000. That year, hitting in a hitter-friendly league in a small ballpark, Feliz put up the following traditional stats, and put himself on prospect lists:
.298, 33 HR, 105 RBI
Ordinarily if I saw a minor-league player in the Giants system put up those kind of numbers I might get pretty excited too (in fact, I was, at the time, hopeful that Feliz was going to develop into a good major-league player at that time). There are problems with using that season as an indicator of trend, though. First of all Feliz was 26 that season, not 23 as originally thought. Why is this so signficant? Because at 26 a guy having that season in AAA could be a late-bloomer, but could just as easily simply have had a fluke season. At 23 the likelihood is that a guy has broken out. Feliz had never hit for either average (career high to that date was .272 in 1997 at single-A Bakersfield) or power (career high slugging % to that date was .437 for AA Shreveport in 1999), so chances are his 2000 season wasn't predictive. Secondly, so much of his performance was based on a batting average spike, which tends to be the statistic most prone to fluctuation. And finally, even in that season Feliz swung at everything, just like he'd always done. He drew 30 walks in 533 plate appearances (which was and remains a career high). If it looked like Feliz had learned to distinguish balls from strikes and the result was better numbers, I'd believe in that 2000 season, but to my eye Feliz continued to swing at everything - he just happened to connect more often. While there are players who can get away with this (Alfonso Soriano, early-career Vladimir Guerrero, Miguel Tejada) these are all guys who utterly destroyed the minor leagues and are some of the most amazing atheletes in the game. Pedro Feliz can't get away with it.
So yes, Feliz is hitting .292 right now, and for his near-.300 (over .300 at the time) batting average, Mr. Genius Sabean has declared that Feliz will play every day. Looking behind his batting average, here's what Feliz is actually doing this season so far:
.292 AVG (19 for 65), .303 OBP (1 walk), .415 SLG (4 extra-base hits)
The batting average is the only thing Feliz is bringing to the table. All of his OBP and SLG are based on hitting singles. He's a .250 hitter (at best) in the majors. Do we really want to see what he's doing to do to the Giants offensively if they wait around for his batting average to drop to .250? This guy is supposed to help on offense? Goodness.
It's not like he's even good defensively.
Giants lose again
Yet another wasted quality start from Jerome Williams and a waste of a Barry Bonds home run. Marlins win 4-3. The uncanny luck that the Giants possessed last year in one-run games now turns around on them, as they currently sport a 3-6 mark in such games. The law of averages can be your friend one year, enemy the next. Giants currently in last and things look grim.
Sabean admits there are problems
You know things are getting rough when even Brian Sabean admits the team is in trouble. From today's merc:
"I wish I knew,'' the Giants' general manager said with a wince before Wednesday's surprising, but probably only temporary, 10-7 uprising over the Atlanta Braves at SBC Park. ``I'm completely at a loss right now what our identity is. . . .
I'll tell you Sabes - the team's identity is Barry Bonds and all the overpaid midlevel scrub vets you like so much.
"When you're changing the roster 30 or 40 percent every year to try to be the best team possible and have the winning ingredient to get to the playoffs, there's a percentage of `what-if' involved or fallibility.
Yes - "what if" Neifi Perez, Brett Tomko, Dustin Hermanson, Michael Tucker, JT Snow and Pedro Feliz do EXACTLY what they were expected to do - perform at a low level? Where is the shock here?
"Now, in our case, deservedly so, we've got people's [the "lunatic fringe"] expectations up so high, and it's their right to be frustrated and to voice their opinions and voice their concerns,'' Sabean said.
So nice of you to acknowledge our rights, Mr. Sabean. - A proud member of the Lunatic Fringe.
2004 Giants Rant - Immediate Rebuilding
This is the second part of my current thoughts for the Giants franchise. This rant examines the possibility of tearing down the team and building it back up from scratch to contend in a few years. - Eric
Yesterday's rant spun an improbable plan for reloading the Giants' roster using players from unlikely sources or in unlikely roles. Of course, expecting Brian Sabean to trade for Craig Wilson, scouring the Japanese leagues and admitting his mistakes (like Neifi) is totally unrealistic. Almost as unrealistic, in fact, as the substance of this rant.
Plan B - Use 2004 to rebuild the team
When the Cleveland Indians decided that the core of players they'd developed and assembled in the mid 90's (Thome, Lofton, Colon, Vizquel, etc...) weren't going to be enough to get them back to the World Series, GM Mark Shapiro made a series of trades designed to obtain maximum future value for each of their star and veteran players, acknowledging that a couple of years of rebuilding with young players would lead to a franchise filled with cheap major-league talent a few years in the future, and that this was preferable to watching the veterans struggle to go all the way and fail. Now Cleveland is still in the rebuilding process, having acquired or developed players like CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez, Milton Bradley, Jason Davis, Chad Durbin, Travis Hafner, Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore, Jody Gerut etc.. and look to contend in 2005.
Generally, I believe that there are many ways to build a winning team. A team can draft and develop a core of players and sign them to deals before they become too expensive (the Indians model). A team can develop stars internally and sign external veterans as well (the Yankees model). A team can try to build exclusively from without using undervalued players (the Giants model). A team can try to build from without using expensive players (the 1990's Orioles model). Each of this models has risks associated with it. Obviously teams that base their future around the draft and the development of young players require that their scouting and draft teams pack the minor leagues with players likely to develop into major league regulars. Teams who try to sign undervalued veterans need to be able to evaluate those players better than the other teams around the league. Teams that sign expensive veterans better have a lot of money.
The Giants don't have a lot of money. They don't draft well. And for at least two years running they have not shown an ability to unearth players whose value is greater than the one given them by the general baseball market.
Plan B posits that the current team is done, mostly through the poor use of limited payroll funds, and that the time has come for the Giants to do what Cleveland did. The Giants have not assembled a core of players the way Cleveland did, but they have a number of veterans who can tremendously help those teams that are likely to contend in 2004 achieve their goals, and these teams are likely to provide San Francisco with the young players that will be needed to build the next great Giants franchise. Partially because of the frequency with which Brian Sabean trades minor-league players for veterans but mostly because he doesn't draft at all well, the Giants farm system is nearly bone-dry. If they try to continue doing what they're doing now and play with the current team in 2005 and 2006 and just wait for the the star players' contracts to expire, the situation will be extremely dire, since not only will these teams not have brought home any World Series banners, but the rebuilding will be enormously difficult and lengthy.
It bears mentioning for what must be the tenth time that this isn't a suggestion of what might actually happen. Of course this isn't going to happen. I just think that the next 5-8 years are a whole lot better for Giants fans under this scenario than under the "keep signing the next Michael Tucker until Barry retires" scenario.
Step 1: Trade Barry Bonds and Neifi Perez to Oakland for Nick Swisher, Joe Blanton and Bobby Crosby. There may never have been a player with as much midseason trade value as Barry Bonds. He is the best player in the game and getting better. Any contender who picks up Barry has to become an immediate favorite to win the pennant. Oakland is the only real option for a trade. A trade to Oakland makes sense for San Francisco, Oakland, Barry, Giants fans and A's fans.
It makes sense for San Francisco because no contending team has the kind of prospects that the A's have. The Giants need to get three prospects who are likely to turn into good major league players if they're going to trade Barry Bonds. The A's are the only team that a) will contend, b) have those prospects to trade away and c) play in the AL. Swisher (OF), Blanton (SP) and Crosby (SS) can be part of the next great series of Giants teams. In exchange for the unparalleled greatness of Bonds, the Giants force Beane to take Neifi Perez just so the Giants can get rid of him. They split his salary.
It makes sense for Oakland because they immediately become the favorite to win the World Series. In Oakland Barry could play left field and DH when he wasn't playing the field. He would displace the likes of Eric Byrnes and Scott Hatteberg when he did, which would make the Oakland offense (currently based around Eric Chavez, Jermaine Dye and a bunch of OBP guys) go from average to among the best in the AL. Their pitching is already the best in the AL. They'd probably field the best team in the majors. In addition, Barry would give the A's the ability to draw a lot more fans, since he's basically a self-contained marketing machine as he chases HR records. There are very few things that could convince Oakland ownership to take on this kind of payroll, but getting Barry Bonds is a unique opportunity, and with Jermaine Dye's contract coming off the books next year, their payroll would only truly balloon for 2004 and not for the 2-4 years Barry might play for them.
It makes sense for Barry because he'll get his ring, he can DH and extend his career and can stay in the bay area. In fact, I think this trade is best for Barry among all parties. He deserves to win a World Series after the career that he's had, and the Giants haven't built a team that can get him one. The A's have. Drop him into a roster with that pitching staff and a league-average offense and he'd take them right to the top.
It makes sense for Giants fans because the current team is killing us. This way we can watch Barry across the bay while rooting for a squad of emerging players who can develop into a great squad while we watch them.
It makes sense for A's fans for obvious reasons.
Step 2: Trade Ray Durham to the Twins for Justin Morneau and Grant Balfour. The Twins are likely to win the AL Central, but no thanks to perpetual scrub Luis Rivas. Durham is a perfect fit for the Twins, providing needed leadoff skills and pushing Shannon Stewart to a more natural 2-spot in the lineup.
Minnesota seems to grow guys like Morneau in a field somewhere, but he's the best of these guys they've developed in a long time. He's 23, is currently destroying AAA, and is the type of guy who becomes a cornerstone of a good team for years. The Twins have a multi-year commitment to Doug Mientciewicz and have guys like Mike Restovich and Matthew LeCroy coming out their ears. They have no one like Durham, so this trade works for them. Grant Balfour is a 26-year-old Australian pitcher with very high strikeout rates that I think is capable of becoming a #2 or #3 starter in the majors if he can stay healthy.
Step 3: Trade Jason Schmidt to the White Sox for Jeremy Reed and Kris Honel. The White Sox are the Twins' most likely competition in the AL Central. Schmidt gives them the ace they badly lack and puts their pitching more on pace with an impressive offense built around Magglio Ordonez, Frank Thomas, Carlos Lee and Paul Konerko. With Schmidt as the #1, Esteban Loiaza becomes their #2, Mark Buehrle their #3, John Garland their #4. With Schmidt they'd have a playoff rotation. Without him, they really don't.
Reed is arguably the best outfield prospect in the game. He's 23, hits for a very high average, draws walks, runs like the wind and hits doubles. His power could develop as he gets older. He, like Morneau, is likely to develop into a core player in a very good team. Honel is a young (21) starter who projects as a #3 starter in the big leagues. He is a complimentary player in this deal, and would drop in among a number of Giants prospects who are a couple of years away.
OR
Step 3: Trade Jason Schmidt to the Blue Jays for Alexis Rios and Dustin McGowan. If anything can enable the Blue Jays, who despite their slow start are going to have a big offense built around Carlos Delgado and Vernon Wells, it would be the addition of a second ace alongside Roy Halladay.
The Blue Jays (like most teams run by sabremetric GMs) have a collection of very good prospects in their system, and Rios is among the best (although some would make arguments for Gabe Gross). Rios is 23, projects as a center fielder who hits for average and some power. He's not the prospect Reed is, in my view. McGowan (no relation) is a 22-year-old right-handed pitcher who has great stuff and is currently tearing up AA.
Step 4: Trade Edgardo Alfonzo and Jason Christianson to the Astros for Richard Hidalgo, Morgan Ensberg, and Fernando Nieve. Alfonzo doesn't have anywhere near as much trade value as he would if he were actually hitting. Because of this, the Giants need to take on Richard Hidalgo's contract, which the Astros would like to move to make room for Jason Lane. Ideally, they work it out so that this trade is a money wash in 2004 (after which Hidalgo's contract comes off the books while Alfonzo's is a gift that keeps on giving). Christianson gives the Astros a major-league lefty for their bullpen, which currently is entirely right-handed.
Houston manager Jimy Williams obviously hates Ensberg, but I like him. He's not a huge prospect (he's 28) but in 572 major-league ABs has established (to my satisfaction) that he's a good major-league hitter. He'll be cheap for at least 2 or 3 more years. Alfonzo gives Jimy a veteran he can play, and the ballpark there will help him re-attain his career numbers. Nieve is a young pitcher currently at single-A who gives the Giants another electric power arm to go with Merkin Valdez and Matt Cain.
Step 5: Trade Pedro Feliz to Pittsburgh for Bobby Hill. I hate Pedro Feliz (but I'll be Lloyd McClendon would love him) and the Giants have (in this scenario) already picked up real players for 1B and 3B. By the time I envision this new team contending (2006), Feliz will be 31, will have spent six years in the major leagues, entitling him to arbitration at best, free agency at worst. Given that he isn't a good player, I'd rather see him out of the picture sooner rather than later.
Pittsburgh is obviously down on the 26-year-old Hill, who despite a mediocre 190 early-season ABs for the Cubs in 2002 (did anyone really think Dusty would stick with a then 24-year-old player?) has never really lost the abilities that made him a prospect in the first place. He has a good approach to the plate, draws walks, has good speed. He'd make a good, cheap second baseman for a team that doesn't have options at the position.
Step 6: Trade Felix Rodriguez to the Yankees for Eric Duncan. The Yankees can definitely use Felix's power arm, don't mind his salary, and given that they have A-Rod playing 3B for the next 7 years they don't exactly need Duncan, a 19-year-old 3B who hits a ton but who probably winds up playing LF at some point.
Summation: These moves rid the Giants of a majority of their salary commitments. I've chosen to leave Rueter on the team for 2004 and 2005 to preside over what will be a terrible team. There's always someone left over to keep things under control (see: Omar Vizquel). I haven't traded Grissom because, frankly, I can't find a contention team that would be better off with him than with their current option. Certainly if a trading partner could be found who offered a prospect for Grissom's services as the smaller half of a good center field platoon, I'd happily take the deal. After 2004 the contracts of Nen, Snow and Grissom expire.
Under this plan, the second half of 2004 and all of 2005 are going to be painful. However by 2006 I think this team would field a very competitive squad and would pack the house again with exciting, winning baseball. I envision the 2006 team looking something like this (obviously a lot of speculation here, since who really knows what will happen with young players):
1. Jeremy Reed (CF)
2. Bobby Hill (2B)
3. Justin Morneau (1B)
4. Nick Swisher (LF)
5. Morgan Ensberg (3B)
6. Todd Linden (RF)
7. Bobby Crosby (SS)
8. Yorvit Torrealba (C)
9. Pitcher
SP1. Jerome Williams
SP2. Jesse Foppert
SP3. Merkin Valdez
SP4. Matt Cain
SP5. Chris Honel
Rather than try to build a bullpen for 2 years out, I'll just say that Aardsma is probably the closer and the rest of the pen can be assembled during the 2005 season, using various players within the system as well as veterans who are picked up as they become available.
I feel compelled (for the few who got this far) to say yet again that I don't expect this to happen. This is not how the Giants organization is run. That I even suggest it means that I believe that both the major and minor-league personnel currently on board cannot contend either in the present OR the future. I think this is an extreme response to an extreme problem, but that after a couple of bad years the Giants would be contenders again. I think the window for Bonds to win with the Giants is closed. Let's give him the chance he deserves and be on our way to our own future.
Best to all,
Eric
2004 Giants Rant - The possibility of Contention
This rant was circulated to an internal list a few days ago. After a month of Giants baseball, I had a lot to say. This one focuses on a plan to reload the Giants' pathetic 2004 roster, employing unconventional means and without spending extra money. - Eric
Most of you know I'm not that happy with the current season and the team the Giants' front office have assembled for this year. I don't believe the 2004 iteration of this team can contend no matter how great Barry Bonds is (and he's that great, but even so...), but rather than just bang my head against a wall, I thought I'd put together two plans of action (neither of which will take place of course, but it's a thought exercise and a bit of stress relief for me to do so, so if you're interested, read on, if not, feel free to delete and don't tell me you did) detailing out what I think ought to happen. The first is contained here, the second will be sent out at a later time (I have no doubt you're all breathless with anticipation).
Plan A: Try to contend in 2004
The team they have right now isn't good enough to contend, even in a weak division. The insistence on spending needed money on crappy veterans and the lack of awareness of the freely-available pool of replacement-level (or better) talent have created an $82M roster that looks like a $40M roster because so much money is wasted, whether it's on injured players (Robb Nen makes $9M this year) or overpaid veteran scrubs. Worse, some of the players are not just overpaid, they perform at a lower level than what the team could get out of a league-minimum player. Plan A involves a massive shakeup of the lineup, an acknowledgement that costs are sunk, and creative thinking. Note: I freely acknowledge that Plan A will NEVER happen.
Step 1: Shortstop. The Giants currently start the worst hitter in the major leagues at shortstop. They will pay him about $3M this year to generate hundreds of unproductive outs and make a few impressive-looking throws. Signing him was an indication that the general manager has taken leave of his senses. However that money will be spent on him regardless of what the team does going forward. Sending him out there to hit like a (bad) pitcher is the problem now. He has no trade value unless Sabean can convince the White Sox to take him to fill in for the injured Jose Valentin (doubtful), so they need to bench him or, if he whines about that and won't come into games as a defensive replacement (as he refused to do when he was a Royal) just cut him outright. Playing him is worse than paying him not to play.
There aren't going to be any really good players out there to play shortstop for the Giants at this point, but there are several guys they could go get who would at least perform like a league-average player, rather than the most destructive offensive nightmare in the game. First on my list would be Julio Lugo, who I'm guessing the DRays would be happy to trade away given that they aren't contending and their top prospect is BJ Upton. He's no A-Rod, but he'll give the Giants decent offense out of the #7 or #8 spot and is cheap (relatively speaking). It wouldn't take a blue-chip prospect (of which the Giants have precious few) to acquire him. Alternately, they could trade with Cleveland for Omar Vizquel, who they have already tried to deal (to Seattle). Vizquel is like an older, better version of Neifi - he doesn't hit much (but more than Neifi will) and plays the position well defensively (but probably not quite as well as Neifi does). Vizquel is obviously not a long-term or even medium-term solution, and the Giants have no internal replacement coming up any time soon (the Giants don't draft hitters). Alternately, depending on how serious the Mariners take their early slide and his poor April numbers, they could try to trade for Rich Aurilia back, since if Sabean understood the arbitration game at all Aurilia would still be a Giant anyway.
Step 2: Right field. The Giants have long been using middle-class veterans to play right field, and while they were out getting good (but underrated, for various reasons) players it worked fairly well. They got Ellis Burks on the cheap because other teams were worried about his knees. They got Reggie Sanders cheap coming off a terrible season for the Braves. They got Jose Cruz cheap 2 years off a 30/30 season because he had a low batting average. All of those guys were pretty good players, but the three-headed monster they have assembled this year is a disaster. Michael Tucker is a 4th outfielder (at best) and Hammonds is the smaller part of a decent platoon in center or right field. Dustan Mohr doesn't belong on the roster of a good team. There are plenty of option that can be looked at to fix this problem. First prize is a player who is a very good hitter but doesn't "look like a good ballplayer" and whose manager begrudges him every AB he gets. That player is Craig Wilson, who's off to a hot start, which might make him a little more expensive, but who is still eminently acquirable, particularly with Pittsburgh getting Jason Bay back and having a glut of infielders (Freddy Sanchez is coming back from injury soon and enters an already crowded picture). I'd send some toolsy prospect plus one (preferably both) of Tucker or Mohr (Giants would pay them of course) to Pittsburgh for Wilson. As a sidelight, if I could get them to throw in Bobby Hill (currently backing up Jose Castillo) I'd pick him up in a heartbeat to back up Durham and play 2B for the Giants after 2006. An alternative, if Wilson proves too expensive or unavailable, would be to pluck Termel Sledge from Montreal. He's off to a disastrous start, but he's a good hitter and would pay dividends as a league-average or slightly better RF for 4 or 5 years at a low price.
Step 3: First base. When the Giants got league-leading offensive production from Jeff Kent and Aurilia at the middle infield positions, they could nominally justify having JT Snow playing first base for his glove work. That is no longer the case, and having a defensive specialist at first base is a luxury the Giants can't even remotely afford. There are so many guys out there who can put up a .265 / .350 / .475 season while competently playing first base that the Giants have no excuse for playing JT and his non-existent bat anymore. I understand that Sabean thought he was going to be able to make an off-season deal for Sexson or Derrek Lee, but it didn't get done, and Snow is a big problem. There are plenty of options out there. The first few calls I'd make would be to Japan - Roberto Petagine, Alex Cabrera and Tuffy Rhodes are all out there hitting 40, 50 homers a year in Japan, and while these guys obviously aren't Jim Thome, they'd be a whole lot better than what the Giants have. Other alternatives would be to call the wins asking about Justin Morneau or Mike Restovich - these guys have killed the minor leagues and both are (seemingly) blocked - see if the Twins want to part with either (or both) of them. In the "the hell with the defense" department, a trade with Texas for Brad Fullmer would be a smart move. Texas always needs pitching. He hits a lot and is cheap. As a sign of how desperate I think this situation is, I think even Damon Minor (currently going .321 / .410 / .547 at Fresno) would be a better option than Snow. Of these, the prize would be Morneau, but I think he's also the least attainable.
Step 4: Third base. In a truly ideal world the Giants would trade Edgardo Alfonzo and his 4-year contract to the Astros for Morgan Ensberg, since I think they're very similar players. Houston's Jimy Williams refuses to play Ensberg (routinely benches him for the likes of Geoff Blum and Mike Lamb), especially with Ensberg off to a poor start, and he costs a lot less than Alfonzo. However since I don't think I could make a good-faith argument to Gerry Hunsicker that this trade makes sense for his team, even in Plan A the Giants probably have to stick with Alfonzo. Note: no plan that involves the word "contention" has Pedro Feliz being anything more than a backup at any position. He is likely to finish the season with an OBP of under .300 - that's just too low for a regular player, even if his power is real (which it probably is).
Step 5: Center field. I've been singing this song a long time, and it doesn't seem particularly relevant in a year where Marquis Grissom has started the year on such a tear, even against right-handed pitching. However the fact remains that Grissom is a 37-year-old lefty masher who is horribly miscast as an everyday center fielder. He's consistently proven that he hits lefties like Richie Sexson and righties like a 165-pound middle infielder. Unfortunately there aren't a lot of options for a left-handed platoon partner for him that immediately make themselves obvious. No one in the Giants farm system can do it (Jason Ellison isn't anywhere near ready and probably never will be), Hammonds hits from the same side as Grissom and I'm not aware of too many cheap hard-hitting center fielders out there unless the Expos have decided to give up on Brad Wilkerson after a few weeks of bad hitting (which I seriously doubt). One option, based on how healthy he is, is former Giant Kenny Lofton, who has platoon splits that are the mirror image of Grissom's. It would require some creative and rational lineup management by Felipe (like I said before, I know this is a fantasy scenario), but a Lofton / Grissom platoon in center field would actually make a lot of sense and would keep both older players fresh for the latter part of the season.
Note: Pitching rotation. There is only so much a team can do with the rotation at this point in the season. Obviously having signed Maddux or Colon in the off-season would have helped. If Schmidt is healthy (if he isn't, there's no way this team contends anyway), he, Williams and Rueter make a fine 1-2-3, but Tomko and Hermanson/Correia are a problem at the back-end. Having a strong pitching rotation from top to bottom has been an organizational strength for several years and now it isn't. The hope was (obviously) that Hermanson and Tomko would flourish at SBC park. I think that was sensible, but not very realistic. I don't think there's a lot that can be done unless Sabean can trade for some midlevel pitcher like Steve Trachsel. Ultimately if the 4 and 5 spots in the rotation were the only problem, I think the team might be good enough and there's little that can be done now anyway.
Note: Bullpen. The idea was clearly that Robb Nen was coming back and was going to fix the bullpen's woes. That's apparently not going to happen. The refusal to bring back Worrell, who ultimately signed with the Phillies for setup man money (see my earlier comment about arbitration) is evidence enough of this. I actually think the bullpen will be alright if given time to work itself out (this represents relatively new thinking for me over the last week or so). Matt Herges shouldn't be the high-leverage reliever ("closer" for those who think in such terms). The best reliever on the staff is Felix Rodriguez and he should probably be used in crucial situations, even though I worry about his command problems this year and lack of an off-speed pitch. Herges is a fine third righty out of the pen (which he was last year) and acceptable as a second. Brower is decent enough long man. From the left side they have the interchangeable (as yet unscored upon) Christianson, Eyre and Wayne Franklin. Unless they can get someone to take Christianson and his $2.5M salary, the answer is to convince some fool GM that Franklin was always meant to be a reliever, and that his 1.23 ERA is for real and try to get something of value for him. If the eventual construction of the bullpen is Felix, Herges, Brower and Correia (or Aardsma) from the right side and Eyre and Christianson from the left side, I don't think this bullpen will destroy the Giants' chances (unless they are so overworked that they all break down). It would certainly help a lot to get a healthy Nen back, but I don't think it's likely.
Conclusion: As should be obvious, it's the lineup that I think can be fixed, and while I don't know if it would be enough, I think fixing it would give the Giants the best chance to contend while not spending any additional money (which they've made it very obvious they won't do) and without waiting until July to acquire players (at which time Neifi, Snow, Tucker, Mohr and Feliz will have made so many outs that the team will probably be out of contention for good at that point). In my ideal scenario (note that I'm building in my views about lineup construction) the Giants would run out the following lineups:
Versus a right-handed starter:
1. Lofton (CF)
2. Durham (2B)
3. Bonds (LF)
4. Wilson (RF)
5. Morneau/Petagine (1B)
6. Alfonzo (3B)
7. Pierzynksi (C)
8. Lugo (SS)
9. Pitcher
Versus a left-handed starter:
1. Durham (2B)
2. Alfonzo (3B)
3. Bonds (LF)
4. Grissom (CF)
5. Wilson (RF)
6. Morneau / Petagine (1B)
7. Pierzynski (C)
8. Lugo (SS)
9. Pitcher
Whichever of Hammonds or Tucker remained on the team would be the extra OF and back up all three spots. Snow can be kept on as a backup 1B / defensive replacement. Feliz can be the #1 pinch-hitter and can back up each infield position.
Like I said - I don't know that this would be enough, but I think this team would score enough runs to give the Barry and pitching staff enough help to put the team over the top in a very weak division. And if you got this far, congratulations.
INTRODUCTION
After my various Giants-related rants, both via email and on various public message boards (yes, now my lack of a life is public knowledge), it has been suggested to me that I put them up in a place where even people who don't know me well enough to yell at me in person can read (and comment on) some of my baseball ravings. I will probably spend most of the space in this blog criticizing the stupidity of various baseball front offices (particularly the Giants), making wildly unrealistic personnel suggestions and taking poorly-written sports commentary to task. There will be a lot of love for Barry Bonds. Occasionally there might even be something I approve of, which you as readers might appreciate all the more by virtue of the scarcity of such events. Anyway, enjoy to whatever extent you do, and let me know if there are things you think I should rant about in this space.
