Eric's Giants Blog

2004 Giants Rant - The possibility of Contention

This rant was circulated to an internal list a few days ago. After a month of Giants baseball, I had a lot to say. This one focuses on a plan to reload the Giants' pathetic 2004 roster, employing unconventional means and without spending extra money. - Eric

Most of you know I'm not that happy with the current season and the team the Giants' front office have assembled for this year. I don't believe the 2004 iteration of this team can contend no matter how great Barry Bonds is (and he's that great, but even so...), but rather than just bang my head against a wall, I thought I'd put together two plans of action (neither of which will take place of course, but it's a thought exercise and a bit of stress relief for me to do so, so if you're interested, read on, if not, feel free to delete and don't tell me you did) detailing out what I think ought to happen. The first is contained here, the second will be sent out at a later time (I have no doubt you're all breathless with anticipation).

Plan A: Try to contend in 2004

The team they have right now isn't good enough to contend, even in a weak division. The insistence on spending needed money on crappy veterans and the lack of awareness of the freely-available pool of replacement-level (or better) talent have created an $82M roster that looks like a $40M roster because so much money is wasted, whether it's on injured players (Robb Nen makes $9M this year) or overpaid veteran scrubs. Worse, some of the players are not just overpaid, they perform at a lower level than what the team could get out of a league-minimum player. Plan A involves a massive shakeup of the lineup, an acknowledgement that costs are sunk, and creative thinking. Note: I freely acknowledge that Plan A will NEVER happen.

Step 1: Shortstop. The Giants currently start the worst hitter in the major leagues at shortstop. They will pay him about $3M this year to generate hundreds of unproductive outs and make a few impressive-looking throws. Signing him was an indication that the general manager has taken leave of his senses. However that money will be spent on him regardless of what the team does going forward. Sending him out there to hit like a (bad) pitcher is the problem now. He has no trade value unless Sabean can convince the White Sox to take him to fill in for the injured Jose Valentin (doubtful), so they need to bench him or, if he whines about that and won't come into games as a defensive replacement (as he refused to do when he was a Royal) just cut him outright. Playing him is worse than paying him not to play.

There aren't going to be any really good players out there to play shortstop for the Giants at this point, but there are several guys they could go get who would at least perform like a league-average player, rather than the most destructive offensive nightmare in the game. First on my list would be Julio Lugo, who I'm guessing the DRays would be happy to trade away given that they aren't contending and their top prospect is BJ Upton. He's no A-Rod, but he'll give the Giants decent offense out of the #7 or #8 spot and is cheap (relatively speaking). It wouldn't take a blue-chip prospect (of which the Giants have precious few) to acquire him. Alternately, they could trade with Cleveland for Omar Vizquel, who they have already tried to deal (to Seattle). Vizquel is like an older, better version of Neifi - he doesn't hit much (but more than Neifi will) and plays the position well defensively (but probably not quite as well as Neifi does). Vizquel is obviously not a long-term or even medium-term solution, and the Giants have no internal replacement coming up any time soon (the Giants don't draft hitters). Alternately, depending on how serious the Mariners take their early slide and his poor April numbers, they could try to trade for Rich Aurilia back, since if Sabean understood the arbitration game at all Aurilia would still be a Giant anyway.

Step 2: Right field. The Giants have long been using middle-class veterans to play right field, and while they were out getting good (but underrated, for various reasons) players it worked fairly well. They got Ellis Burks on the cheap because other teams were worried about his knees. They got Reggie Sanders cheap coming off a terrible season for the Braves. They got Jose Cruz cheap 2 years off a 30/30 season because he had a low batting average. All of those guys were pretty good players, but the three-headed monster they have assembled this year is a disaster. Michael Tucker is a 4th outfielder (at best) and Hammonds is the smaller part of a decent platoon in center or right field. Dustan Mohr doesn't belong on the roster of a good team. There are plenty of option that can be looked at to fix this problem. First prize is a player who is a very good hitter but doesn't "look like a good ballplayer" and whose manager begrudges him every AB he gets. That player is Craig Wilson, who's off to a hot start, which might make him a little more expensive, but who is still eminently acquirable, particularly with Pittsburgh getting Jason Bay back and having a glut of infielders (Freddy Sanchez is coming back from injury soon and enters an already crowded picture). I'd send some toolsy prospect plus one (preferably both) of Tucker or Mohr (Giants would pay them of course) to Pittsburgh for Wilson. As a sidelight, if I could get them to throw in Bobby Hill (currently backing up Jose Castillo) I'd pick him up in a heartbeat to back up Durham and play 2B for the Giants after 2006. An alternative, if Wilson proves too expensive or unavailable, would be to pluck Termel Sledge from Montreal. He's off to a disastrous start, but he's a good hitter and would pay dividends as a league-average or slightly better RF for 4 or 5 years at a low price.

Step 3: First base. When the Giants got league-leading offensive production from Jeff Kent and Aurilia at the middle infield positions, they could nominally justify having JT Snow playing first base for his glove work. That is no longer the case, and having a defensive specialist at first base is a luxury the Giants can't even remotely afford. There are so many guys out there who can put up a .265 / .350 / .475 season while competently playing first base that the Giants have no excuse for playing JT and his non-existent bat anymore. I understand that Sabean thought he was going to be able to make an off-season deal for Sexson or Derrek Lee, but it didn't get done, and Snow is a big problem. There are plenty of options out there. The first few calls I'd make would be to Japan - Roberto Petagine, Alex Cabrera and Tuffy Rhodes are all out there hitting 40, 50 homers a year in Japan, and while these guys obviously aren't Jim Thome, they'd be a whole lot better than what the Giants have. Other alternatives would be to call the wins asking about Justin Morneau or Mike Restovich - these guys have killed the minor leagues and both are (seemingly) blocked - see if the Twins want to part with either (or both) of them. In the "the hell with the defense" department, a trade with Texas for Brad Fullmer would be a smart move. Texas always needs pitching. He hits a lot and is cheap. As a sign of how desperate I think this situation is, I think even Damon Minor (currently going .321 / .410 / .547 at Fresno) would be a better option than Snow. Of these, the prize would be Morneau, but I think he's also the least attainable.

Step 4: Third base. In a truly ideal world the Giants would trade Edgardo Alfonzo and his 4-year contract to the Astros for Morgan Ensberg, since I think they're very similar players. Houston's Jimy Williams refuses to play Ensberg (routinely benches him for the likes of Geoff Blum and Mike Lamb), especially with Ensberg off to a poor start, and he costs a lot less than Alfonzo. However since I don't think I could make a good-faith argument to Gerry Hunsicker that this trade makes sense for his team, even in Plan A the Giants probably have to stick with Alfonzo. Note: no plan that involves the word "contention" has Pedro Feliz being anything more than a backup at any position. He is likely to finish the season with an OBP of under .300 - that's just too low for a regular player, even if his power is real (which it probably is).

Step 5: Center field. I've been singing this song a long time, and it doesn't seem particularly relevant in a year where Marquis Grissom has started the year on such a tear, even against right-handed pitching. However the fact remains that Grissom is a 37-year-old lefty masher who is horribly miscast as an everyday center fielder. He's consistently proven that he hits lefties like Richie Sexson and righties like a 165-pound middle infielder. Unfortunately there aren't a lot of options for a left-handed platoon partner for him that immediately make themselves obvious. No one in the Giants farm system can do it (Jason Ellison isn't anywhere near ready and probably never will be), Hammonds hits from the same side as Grissom and I'm not aware of too many cheap hard-hitting center fielders out there unless the Expos have decided to give up on Brad Wilkerson after a few weeks of bad hitting (which I seriously doubt). One option, based on how healthy he is, is former Giant Kenny Lofton, who has platoon splits that are the mirror image of Grissom's. It would require some creative and rational lineup management by Felipe (like I said before, I know this is a fantasy scenario), but a Lofton / Grissom platoon in center field would actually make a lot of sense and would keep both older players fresh for the latter part of the season.

Note: Pitching rotation. There is only so much a team can do with the rotation at this point in the season. Obviously having signed Maddux or Colon in the off-season would have helped. If Schmidt is healthy (if he isn't, there's no way this team contends anyway), he, Williams and Rueter make a fine 1-2-3, but Tomko and Hermanson/Correia are a problem at the back-end. Having a strong pitching rotation from top to bottom has been an organizational strength for several years and now it isn't. The hope was (obviously) that Hermanson and Tomko would flourish at SBC park. I think that was sensible, but not very realistic. I don't think there's a lot that can be done unless Sabean can trade for some midlevel pitcher like Steve Trachsel. Ultimately if the 4 and 5 spots in the rotation were the only problem, I think the team might be good enough and there's little that can be done now anyway.

Note: Bullpen. The idea was clearly that Robb Nen was coming back and was going to fix the bullpen's woes. That's apparently not going to happen. The refusal to bring back Worrell, who ultimately signed with the Phillies for setup man money (see my earlier comment about arbitration) is evidence enough of this. I actually think the bullpen will be alright if given time to work itself out (this represents relatively new thinking for me over the last week or so). Matt Herges shouldn't be the high-leverage reliever ("closer" for those who think in such terms). The best reliever on the staff is Felix Rodriguez and he should probably be used in crucial situations, even though I worry about his command problems this year and lack of an off-speed pitch. Herges is a fine third righty out of the pen (which he was last year) and acceptable as a second. Brower is decent enough long man. From the left side they have the interchangeable (as yet unscored upon) Christianson, Eyre and Wayne Franklin. Unless they can get someone to take Christianson and his $2.5M salary, the answer is to convince some fool GM that Franklin was always meant to be a reliever, and that his 1.23 ERA is for real and try to get something of value for him. If the eventual construction of the bullpen is Felix, Herges, Brower and Correia (or Aardsma) from the right side and Eyre and Christianson from the left side, I don't think this bullpen will destroy the Giants' chances (unless they are so overworked that they all break down). It would certainly help a lot to get a healthy Nen back, but I don't think it's likely.

Conclusion: As should be obvious, it's the lineup that I think can be fixed, and while I don't know if it would be enough, I think fixing it would give the Giants the best chance to contend while not spending any additional money (which they've made it very obvious they won't do) and without waiting until July to acquire players (at which time Neifi, Snow, Tucker, Mohr and Feliz will have made so many outs that the team will probably be out of contention for good at that point). In my ideal scenario (note that I'm building in my views about lineup construction) the Giants would run out the following lineups:

Versus a right-handed starter:

1. Lofton (CF)
2. Durham (2B)
3. Bonds (LF)
4. Wilson (RF)
5. Morneau/Petagine (1B)
6. Alfonzo (3B)
7. Pierzynksi (C)
8. Lugo (SS)
9. Pitcher

Versus a left-handed starter:

1. Durham (2B)
2. Alfonzo (3B)
3. Bonds (LF)
4. Grissom (CF)
5. Wilson (RF)
6. Morneau / Petagine (1B)
7. Pierzynski (C)
8. Lugo (SS)
9. Pitcher

Whichever of Hammonds or Tucker remained on the team would be the extra OF and back up all three spots. Snow can be kept on as a backup 1B / defensive replacement. Feliz can be the #1 pinch-hitter and can back up each infield position.

Like I said - I don't know that this would be enough, but I think this team would score enough runs to give the Barry and pitching staff enough help to put the team over the top in a very weak division. And if you got this far, congratulations.

posted by Eric @ 8:54 AM