Eric's Giants Blog

Looking back on Plan B

Last April I posted a long plan to dismantle the 2004 Giants team and rebuild to contend in 2006. My theory was that the current team built around Bonds and Schmidt wasn't good enough to go all the way, and that we'd all be better off trading the few (very) shiny baubles the Giants had on the roster for a boatload of prospects that would form the next great Giants teams. Some thought my notions of the Giants' players trade values were a little inflated, but most of the disagreements were on the margin.

As it turns out, I was both right and wrong. I was right in the Giants, built to win in the present, missed the playoffs. I was wrong in that they just barely missed it. Fantastic second-half surges from Brett Tomko and JT Snow kept the Giants in the thick of it until the bullpen imploded against (who else?) Steve Finley and the Dodgers.

I'll be honest, I don't think last year, looked at as a whole, really deserved Plan B, but it was an idea that I thought about a lot, so now, near the outset of 2005, I want to look back at the "Plan B Team" to see what they're all doing and how we'd be looking as a franchise if we'd put that in place, rather than watch the Tuckermohr's almost make the playoffs last year.

Note for those that might actually be checking: Comments on the Giants early-season exploits will be forthcoming. If last year proves anything it's that you can't rely too much on April.

Going around the diamond, I'll check in with the Plan B team one by one, along with how I had the Giants acquiring each player:

Catcher: Yorvit Torrealba (already on the team)

Yorvit is still on the Giants, but Sabean signed Mike Matheny to a 3-year deal that relegates Yorvit to a perennial backup role. I still believe he'd be at least an average starting catcher in the NL, possibly better.

1B: Justin Morneau (acquired from the Twins for Ray Durham)

For those who will immediately exclaim that Minnesota would never trade Morneau for Durham, remember that at the time of this post Morneau was languishing in the minors. He's currently the starting first baseman for the Twins after a very good (.271 / .340 / .536) 280 post-callup ABs. The consensus is that Morneau is going to be a very good, possibly great slugging first baseman for many years to come. He's currently 24.

2B: Bobby Hill (acquired from the PPirates for Pedro Feliz)

I think I might have blown this one. I had a strong sense that Hill was a late-bloomer, and that his on-base skills would make him at least a Todd Walker for relatively little coin. He did his best David Eckstein hitting impression with the Pirates last year (.266 / .353 / .339) over 233 ABs as a backup to Jose Castillo. He was 0 for 3 in steal attempts. All that being said, his OBP was still .353, and that's nothing to scoff at. A lot of leadoff guys are worse than that. A guy like that, particularly if he developed just a smidge of power, is valuable.

SS: Bobby Crosby (acquired from Oakland for Barry Bonds & Neifi Perez)

I had the Giants getting the A's crown jewels for Bonds (Swisher and Blanton along with Crosby) and I still maintain that Beane would have done it. Crosby was last years ROY in the AL (in real life, of course, he was still with the A's - in the NL he'd likely have lost out to Jason Bay just like Khalil Greene did) and looks to be an above-average starting shortstop going forward.

3B: Morgan Ensberg (acquired from Houston for Edgardo Alfonzo and Jason Christianson)

Ensberg had a terrible 2004 and lost a ton of playing time to Mike Lamb (for those who don't think Houston would have traded him, note that he lost playing time to MIKE LAMB). He's off to a great start this year and I still think that had he been allowed to settle in and play full time he'd have had no trouble (cheaply) hitting .270 / .350 / .475, which is quite adequate. Ensberg wouldn't have been a long-term solution at third base (he's 28) but he'd have manned the position nicely while the Giants developed someone else (like Eric Duncan, who I had the Giants picking up from the Yankees for Felix Rodriguez. Amusingly, FeRod is now on the Yankees).

LF: Todd Linden (current Giants player)

Likelihood is this rare selection from the Giants' own system would have been inadequate. Linden struggled badly in 2004 at Fresno and probably wouldn't be ready this year. A Michael Tucker or someone like him would be required to see if Linden is ever going to build on his big 2002 at AA.

CF: Jeremy Reed (acquired from the White Sox for Jason Schmidt)

I love this guy. And he could most certainly have been had in the deal I envisioned, since he was ultimately dealt to Seattle for the far lesser Freddy Garcia. Reed was called up last year, hit .400 over a few ABs and is now Seattle's #2 hitter.

RF: Nick Swisher (acquired from the A's for Barry Bonds & Neifi Perez)

Swisher is many peoples' pick for this year's AL rookie of the year. He does a little of everything and is going to be quite good, even if he does receive undue scrutiny because of his Moneyball fame. Sure Beane would have hated to give him up, but he could just look at that ring on his finger every time he thought about it (and yes, I think the As with Bonds could have beaten the Red Sox in the ALCS).

Starting Pitchers:

Jerome Williams (already on the team)

Jerome isn't genuinely ready to be a #1 starting pitcher, but remember that the 2005 Plan B Giants weren't really supposed to contend. By the time certain others on the staff develop, he'd settle in as the #3 starter he probably is.

Jesse Foppert (already on the team)

Foppert will probably need 2005 to develop after having Tommy John surgery, but the low-pressure of a non-contending Giants team would have given him the ideal conditions under which he could log 150 innings and get his groove back. And remember, the Plan B team is a 2006 team. I'd allowed for the possibility of some Hermanson-style stopgaps to eat innings in 2005.

Merkin Valdez (already in system)

Valdez had a tough 2004, but like Foppert I still think he's a year of development away from being really good. See above comments on how to use 2005.

Matt Cain (already in system)

Same deal. Cain needs at least 4 months in AAA, but by 2006 he's going to be a ROY candidate if he stays healthy. This guy is awesome.

Kris Honel (acquired from the White Sox for Jason Schmidt)

Honel was/is is a good prospect, but he missed most of 2004 with elbow problems. Hey, building a pitching staff out of young guys is frought with peril.

So anyway, looking at the 2006 "Plan B" Giants, I think you're looking at at least three potential all-stars on offense (Morneau, Crosby, Reed) and at least two potential ace starters (from among Foppert, Valdez, Cain). Not bad considering that the 2006 plan B team was not designed to be real, it was designed to be the team the Giants would put on the field if it spent essentially no money on payroll. It was anticipated that they'd use all this cheap talent to free up the funds to sign a couple of really big players after 2005 or midseason in 2006.

At any rate, instead we have the exact opposite of the Plan B team - we have the aged roster of the 2005 Giants. Will they be good enough to make it, even with Barry Bonds missing at least a month or two? Give me at least until May to decide.

posted by Eric @ 2:02 PM