Eric's Giants Blog

The Bullpen and Plan B

Tim wrote in a comment to yesterday's blog entry:

I think the fact that it is so hard to believe, looking back, that we'd have landed Morneau, Crosby, etc. is both a testament to your baseball knowledge and to the "fantastical" nature of the entire concept.

I'd like to know what you think of this year's bullpen (an entity conspicuously missing from the "Plan B" story). I made it very clear during the first week of the season that the bullpen woes did NOT bother me, and it was because of the ineffectiveness of Spring Training for relief pitchers. If anyone else is interested, I'll explain that concept, but I'm interested in Eric's analysis (pre-season perspective, even) of the 2005 San Francisco Giants Bullpen.

While at the same time accepting Tim's compliment about the quality of the Plan B team I put together last April, I would like to divert some of this praise by saying this: The idea of a Plan B-style rebuilding isn't as difficult as it seems. It's not *that* difficult to identify the guys likely to be successful once players are in the high minors (assuming you believe the once-"fantastical" notion that minor-league performance data predicts with some accuracy the major-league potential of a player) and note that the Plan B acquisitions were almost all position players rather than pitchers. The pitching staff was composed primarily of existing Giants farmhands (Williams, Foppert, Cain, Valdez) with a handful of new guys (Blanton, Nieve, Honel) brought in to ensure that we actually got a few good ones. Pitchers are MUCH more difficult to project and injuries make them a far dicier proposition.

No, I don't think you need to be a genius to trade a team with guys like Bonds and Schmidt into a great young team. What you need, -ahem-, is balls (apologies to the likely non-existant female readers of this blog). It takes cojones to trade away Jason Schmidt, at this point a proven commodity and an extremely valuable one, to get Jeremy Reed. Do I think Reed is going to have a couple of .325 / .410 / .475 seasons with 30 steals at a good success rate while playing plus defense? Yes, I absolutely do. But I don't *know* that. I do know that Schmidt is one of the best starting pitchers in baseball. So there's a big risk in trading away proven commodities to get prospects who might become future all-stars but could just as likely turn into Ruben Rivera or Esteban German.

As well worth it to note that the Giants have some extraordinarily attractive trade pieces in Bonds and Schmidt and, to a lesser extent, Durham. I was able to put together the Plan B team with real blue chip prospects because the veterans being dealt were so good.

So yeah, I'll say it. Like Billy Beane. Beane was criticized by those who don't know as much as they think they do for trading away two of the "big three" for younger guys. In trading away Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder for Dan Haren, Dan Meyer, Juan Cruz, Kiko Calero and Daric Barton, Beane is essentially putting in place his own Plan B team (the part I don't understand is why he hasn't traded for Ryan Howard and done something about the Scott Hatteberg situation). Hudson and (to a lesser extent) Mulder are known quantities. Those guys he got aren't. But they're good and they're cheap. And they will allow Beane to build his team with the knowledge that he has inexpensive skilled players. But you have to admit, Beane has balls to trade Mark Mulder for Dan Haren. No matter how smart you think it is, it's a pretty gutsy move regardless.

So yeah, thanks for the kind words about Plan B. I think it would have made being a Giants fan very interesting and fun to watch a team full of great young position players the for the next 5 or 6 years. Hopefully when it comes time to rebuild, there's still some value on the Giants roster to trade for the generation. Certainly Mike Tucker and Jeff Fassero aren't going to do it.

As far as the bullpen goes - the original Plan B posts explicitly omitted the bullpen, partially because it turns over so quickly that I didn't feel it worthwhile to try and figure out who is still there by 2006 and partially because, honestly, I don't think it's that hard to build a decent one. 2004 notwithstanding, this is something Brian Sabean has always done well, although his fascination with Jason Christianson appalls me.

The current pen will, I think, be fine. Benitez will be good, although not as good as he was for Florida last year. The rest of the guys will be ok, particularly after Foppert is brought up to be the long man. I haven't watched him this year, but I think Herges might be done. He's been solidly average to above average most of the last few years, but last year and so far this year he's been scary bad. If he's really done he needs to be let go quickly. I have little use for Eyre, but he's acceptable. Not sure why we have Fassero. Brower is a solid righty, and if/when Foppert joins the pen it'll give the Giants plenty of right-handed depth. Ideally, I'd like to see Matt Cain break in as a reliever midseason after 10-15 starts in Fresno. Assuming he's dominating hitters there as I suspect he's capable, I think a half-season (at least) of the Johan Santana treatment will do him well.

Note to all that I've added some guest bloggers to the site, so you might see their stuff as well from time to time. Let me know what you think of it.

posted by Eric @ 8:22 AM