Getting Excited about Todd Linden
There are plenty of reasons why I shouldn't write this post.
The Giants don't develop position players.
It's only been 100 ABs.
It's obviously a pathetic attempt to distract from the major-league team.
But hey, it's been a few days, the big-league club isn't giving me anything to write about (I refuse to talk about Barry's knee) and as they go today trying to stay above .500 knowing that The Man isn't coming back any time soon, that the New Closer is essentially done for the season and The Leadoff Man can't stay on the field, I looked around for something to feel good about.
And found Mr. Linden. For those who follow the Giants closely, there was a lot of buzz about Linden once upon a time. He had a great little season in AA a couple of years ago, the type of season that makes one say, "This guy could really be a decent regular. He's not going to be Albert Pujols, but he could be Paul Konerko or Brad Wilkerson or Ryan Klesko". Then came his rather disappointing AAA season last year and his poor performance during ill-advised callups and suddenly he became another failed Giants prospect.
Normally the story ends here. He turns into Tony Torcato or JR Phillips or Dante Powell, spends a few seasons hitting .250 with minimal power in Fresno and then gets waived. Except that maybe we all thought Linden was good for a reason, and maybe the 2004 season was just a "building" season, and that he'd figure it out during his second time through that level.
The difference between Linden and the Torcatos of the world is that he walks. That was what I liked so much about his AA performance - his hitting for average and power were good, but plenty of guys can hit .290 with 25 homers in AA. If they don't back it up by showing that they can lay off the bad pitches, you generally expect them to get exposed at higher levels as they pitches get harder to hit and the pitchers are better at locating them. A guy who can hit .300 with 25 homers by hitting mistake pitches in the zone in AA often turns into a guy who hits .240 with 10 homers in AAA and strikes out like crazy. But a player who hit .290 with 25 homers in AA by swinging and crushing good pitches but also took 80 walks when the pitchers couldn't find the zone - that's someone to get excited about and that's what we all thought we had in Linden.
So anyway, he's kicking some serious ass at Fresno. He's putting up numbers (SAMPLE SIZE ALERT) that make one think that maybe we're talking about future Jim Edmonds or Brian Giles type if we're really really lucky.
So yes, it's only 100 ABs but...
Linden is hitting .320 - that's good, but honestly hitting .320 over 100 ABs doesn't get me so excited. Mike Cervenak is hitting .310. Lots of guys can get 30 singles in 100 ABs at some point in the season, so let's keep going.
Linden has walked 20 times. 20 in 100 ABs. It's too hard to look at 100 ABs as 1/5 of a 500 AB season and see 100 walks. A guy who walks 100 times in AAA is likely to be a good major league regular. Of course, that assumes that the next 400 Abs will be like the last 100, which is a terrible assumption (not least because if he hits like this he won't be in Fresno at the all-star break). But his current OBP is .439, which is absolutely outstanding at AAA.
He's hitting for power, too. He's hit 8 homers and 7 doubles in those 100 ABs. His slugging % is .630, again outstanding for the high minors.
The bad in the eyes of many is that he's striking out a lot - 26 punchouts in 100 ABs means over 100 through a full season. My views on this topic are well known - the walks mean he's only swinging at good pitches. Even without the .320 average the strikeouts don't bother me much as long as he walks are still there. 26 Ks to 20 BBs is fine.
And just for a little bonus (and to make it obvious that I play fantasy baseball) he's got 3 steals in 3 attempts this year.
So just for fun, if we project out a 500 AB season for Linden this year we'd get the following line:
.320 / .439 / .630; 40 HR; 115 RBI; 130 runs scored; 100 BB, 130 K, 15 SB
That all being said, if I can come back 6 weeks from now and report that his second hundred ABs were as good as his first, I'll be able to state with more confidence that the Giants have something potentially special on their hands.
Until then, I'll just be a little excited about what he's doing over there in Fresno.
posted by Eric @ 1:58 PM
23 Comments:
Hi Eric,
My name is Joe - I’ve been browsing your site recently and found it to be a great resource for Giants fans. I am also a hardcore Giants fan and am starting a simple website for Giants fans to buy and sell tickets to each other for free. Very simple idea.
I was wondering if you would be willing to plug our site in a couple weeks when it launches. We're just a local group of fans, and we can't afford any real advertising, so just a blurb in your blog would be very appreciated. Here’s a sneak peek at the site, which is still in its heavy testing phase, and not yet released to the general public – www.tixtrade.com
Thanks,
Joe
Hi! I was doing a search for local blogs and found your fresno radio station related site! I am also a local to Fresno and have a local parenting resource site that might interest you or your readers: Fresno Family. Just thought I'd mention it in case you or any of your fellow local bloggers might want to check it out. Its full of all kinds of local info for parents in the central valley. I've worked hard on it for nearly 5 years so there's a lot there. Anyway, take care!
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