Eric's Giants Blog

2004 Giants Rant - Immediate Rebuilding

This is the second part of my current thoughts for the Giants franchise. This rant examines the possibility of tearing down the team and building it back up from scratch to contend in a few years. - Eric

Yesterday's rant spun an improbable plan for reloading the Giants' roster using players from unlikely sources or in unlikely roles. Of course, expecting Brian Sabean to trade for Craig Wilson, scouring the Japanese leagues and admitting his mistakes (like Neifi) is totally unrealistic. Almost as unrealistic, in fact, as the substance of this rant.

Plan B - Use 2004 to rebuild the team

When the Cleveland Indians decided that the core of players they'd developed and assembled in the mid 90's (Thome, Lofton, Colon, Vizquel, etc...) weren't going to be enough to get them back to the World Series, GM Mark Shapiro made a series of trades designed to obtain maximum future value for each of their star and veteran players, acknowledging that a couple of years of rebuilding with young players would lead to a franchise filled with cheap major-league talent a few years in the future, and that this was preferable to watching the veterans struggle to go all the way and fail. Now Cleveland is still in the rebuilding process, having acquired or developed players like CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez, Milton Bradley, Jason Davis, Chad Durbin, Travis Hafner, Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore, Jody Gerut etc.. and look to contend in 2005.

Generally, I believe that there are many ways to build a winning team. A team can draft and develop a core of players and sign them to deals before they become too expensive (the Indians model). A team can develop stars internally and sign external veterans as well (the Yankees model). A team can try to build exclusively from without using undervalued players (the Giants model). A team can try to build from without using expensive players (the 1990's Orioles model). Each of this models has risks associated with it. Obviously teams that base their future around the draft and the development of young players require that their scouting and draft teams pack the minor leagues with players likely to develop into major league regulars. Teams who try to sign undervalued veterans need to be able to evaluate those players better than the other teams around the league. Teams that sign expensive veterans better have a lot of money.

The Giants don't have a lot of money. They don't draft well. And for at least two years running they have not shown an ability to unearth players whose value is greater than the one given them by the general baseball market.

Plan B posits that the current team is done, mostly through the poor use of limited payroll funds, and that the time has come for the Giants to do what Cleveland did. The Giants have not assembled a core of players the way Cleveland did, but they have a number of veterans who can tremendously help those teams that are likely to contend in 2004 achieve their goals, and these teams are likely to provide San Francisco with the young players that will be needed to build the next great Giants franchise. Partially because of the frequency with which Brian Sabean trades minor-league players for veterans but mostly because he doesn't draft at all well, the Giants farm system is nearly bone-dry. If they try to continue doing what they're doing now and play with the current team in 2005 and 2006 and just wait for the the star players' contracts to expire, the situation will be extremely dire, since not only will these teams not have brought home any World Series banners, but the rebuilding will be enormously difficult and lengthy.

It bears mentioning for what must be the tenth time that this isn't a suggestion of what might actually happen. Of course this isn't going to happen. I just think that the next 5-8 years are a whole lot better for Giants fans under this scenario than under the "keep signing the next Michael Tucker until Barry retires" scenario.

Step 1: Trade Barry Bonds and Neifi Perez to Oakland for Nick Swisher, Joe Blanton and Bobby Crosby. There may never have been a player with as much midseason trade value as Barry Bonds. He is the best player in the game and getting better. Any contender who picks up Barry has to become an immediate favorite to win the pennant. Oakland is the only real option for a trade. A trade to Oakland makes sense for San Francisco, Oakland, Barry, Giants fans and A's fans.

It makes sense for San Francisco because no contending team has the kind of prospects that the A's have. The Giants need to get three prospects who are likely to turn into good major league players if they're going to trade Barry Bonds. The A's are the only team that a) will contend, b) have those prospects to trade away and c) play in the AL. Swisher (OF), Blanton (SP) and Crosby (SS) can be part of the next great series of Giants teams. In exchange for the unparalleled greatness of Bonds, the Giants force Beane to take Neifi Perez just so the Giants can get rid of him. They split his salary.

It makes sense for Oakland because they immediately become the favorite to win the World Series. In Oakland Barry could play left field and DH when he wasn't playing the field. He would displace the likes of Eric Byrnes and Scott Hatteberg when he did, which would make the Oakland offense (currently based around Eric Chavez, Jermaine Dye and a bunch of OBP guys) go from average to among the best in the AL. Their pitching is already the best in the AL. They'd probably field the best team in the majors. In addition, Barry would give the A's the ability to draw a lot more fans, since he's basically a self-contained marketing machine as he chases HR records. There are very few things that could convince Oakland ownership to take on this kind of payroll, but getting Barry Bonds is a unique opportunity, and with Jermaine Dye's contract coming off the books next year, their payroll would only truly balloon for 2004 and not for the 2-4 years Barry might play for them.

It makes sense for Barry because he'll get his ring, he can DH and extend his career and can stay in the bay area. In fact, I think this trade is best for Barry among all parties. He deserves to win a World Series after the career that he's had, and the Giants haven't built a team that can get him one. The A's have. Drop him into a roster with that pitching staff and a league-average offense and he'd take them right to the top.

It makes sense for Giants fans because the current team is killing us. This way we can watch Barry across the bay while rooting for a squad of emerging players who can develop into a great squad while we watch them.

It makes sense for A's fans for obvious reasons.

Step 2: Trade Ray Durham to the Twins for Justin Morneau and Grant Balfour. The Twins are likely to win the AL Central, but no thanks to perpetual scrub Luis Rivas. Durham is a perfect fit for the Twins, providing needed leadoff skills and pushing Shannon Stewart to a more natural 2-spot in the lineup.

Minnesota seems to grow guys like Morneau in a field somewhere, but he's the best of these guys they've developed in a long time. He's 23, is currently destroying AAA, and is the type of guy who becomes a cornerstone of a good team for years. The Twins have a multi-year commitment to Doug Mientciewicz and have guys like Mike Restovich and Matthew LeCroy coming out their ears. They have no one like Durham, so this trade works for them. Grant Balfour is a 26-year-old Australian pitcher with very high strikeout rates that I think is capable of becoming a #2 or #3 starter in the majors if he can stay healthy.

Step 3: Trade Jason Schmidt to the White Sox for Jeremy Reed and Kris Honel. The White Sox are the Twins' most likely competition in the AL Central. Schmidt gives them the ace they badly lack and puts their pitching more on pace with an impressive offense built around Magglio Ordonez, Frank Thomas, Carlos Lee and Paul Konerko. With Schmidt as the #1, Esteban Loiaza becomes their #2, Mark Buehrle their #3, John Garland their #4. With Schmidt they'd have a playoff rotation. Without him, they really don't.

Reed is arguably the best outfield prospect in the game. He's 23, hits for a very high average, draws walks, runs like the wind and hits doubles. His power could develop as he gets older. He, like Morneau, is likely to develop into a core player in a very good team. Honel is a young (21) starter who projects as a #3 starter in the big leagues. He is a complimentary player in this deal, and would drop in among a number of Giants prospects who are a couple of years away.

OR

Step 3: Trade Jason Schmidt to the Blue Jays for Alexis Rios and Dustin McGowan. If anything can enable the Blue Jays, who despite their slow start are going to have a big offense built around Carlos Delgado and Vernon Wells, it would be the addition of a second ace alongside Roy Halladay.

The Blue Jays (like most teams run by sabremetric GMs) have a collection of very good prospects in their system, and Rios is among the best (although some would make arguments for Gabe Gross). Rios is 23, projects as a center fielder who hits for average and some power. He's not the prospect Reed is, in my view. McGowan (no relation) is a 22-year-old right-handed pitcher who has great stuff and is currently tearing up AA.

Step 4: Trade Edgardo Alfonzo and Jason Christianson to the Astros for Richard Hidalgo, Morgan Ensberg, and Fernando Nieve. Alfonzo doesn't have anywhere near as much trade value as he would if he were actually hitting. Because of this, the Giants need to take on Richard Hidalgo's contract, which the Astros would like to move to make room for Jason Lane. Ideally, they work it out so that this trade is a money wash in 2004 (after which Hidalgo's contract comes off the books while Alfonzo's is a gift that keeps on giving). Christianson gives the Astros a major-league lefty for their bullpen, which currently is entirely right-handed.

Houston manager Jimy Williams obviously hates Ensberg, but I like him. He's not a huge prospect (he's 28) but in 572 major-league ABs has established (to my satisfaction) that he's a good major-league hitter. He'll be cheap for at least 2 or 3 more years. Alfonzo gives Jimy a veteran he can play, and the ballpark there will help him re-attain his career numbers. Nieve is a young pitcher currently at single-A who gives the Giants another electric power arm to go with Merkin Valdez and Matt Cain.

Step 5: Trade Pedro Feliz to Pittsburgh for Bobby Hill. I hate Pedro Feliz (but I'll be Lloyd McClendon would love him) and the Giants have (in this scenario) already picked up real players for 1B and 3B. By the time I envision this new team contending (2006), Feliz will be 31, will have spent six years in the major leagues, entitling him to arbitration at best, free agency at worst. Given that he isn't a good player, I'd rather see him out of the picture sooner rather than later.

Pittsburgh is obviously down on the 26-year-old Hill, who despite a mediocre 190 early-season ABs for the Cubs in 2002 (did anyone really think Dusty would stick with a then 24-year-old player?) has never really lost the abilities that made him a prospect in the first place. He has a good approach to the plate, draws walks, has good speed. He'd make a good, cheap second baseman for a team that doesn't have options at the position.

Step 6: Trade Felix Rodriguez to the Yankees for Eric Duncan. The Yankees can definitely use Felix's power arm, don't mind his salary, and given that they have A-Rod playing 3B for the next 7 years they don't exactly need Duncan, a 19-year-old 3B who hits a ton but who probably winds up playing LF at some point.

Summation: These moves rid the Giants of a majority of their salary commitments. I've chosen to leave Rueter on the team for 2004 and 2005 to preside over what will be a terrible team. There's always someone left over to keep things under control (see: Omar Vizquel). I haven't traded Grissom because, frankly, I can't find a contention team that would be better off with him than with their current option. Certainly if a trading partner could be found who offered a prospect for Grissom's services as the smaller half of a good center field platoon, I'd happily take the deal. After 2004 the contracts of Nen, Snow and Grissom expire.

Under this plan, the second half of 2004 and all of 2005 are going to be painful. However by 2006 I think this team would field a very competitive squad and would pack the house again with exciting, winning baseball. I envision the 2006 team looking something like this (obviously a lot of speculation here, since who really knows what will happen with young players):

1. Jeremy Reed (CF)
2. Bobby Hill (2B)
3. Justin Morneau (1B)
4. Nick Swisher (LF)
5. Morgan Ensberg (3B)
6. Todd Linden (RF)
7. Bobby Crosby (SS)
8. Yorvit Torrealba (C)
9. Pitcher

SP1. Jerome Williams
SP2. Jesse Foppert
SP3. Merkin Valdez
SP4. Matt Cain
SP5. Chris Honel

Rather than try to build a bullpen for 2 years out, I'll just say that Aardsma is probably the closer and the rest of the pen can be assembled during the 2005 season, using various players within the system as well as veterans who are picked up as they become available.

I feel compelled (for the few who got this far) to say yet again that I don't expect this to happen. This is not how the Giants organization is run. That I even suggest it means that I believe that both the major and minor-league personnel currently on board cannot contend either in the present OR the future. I think this is an extreme response to an extreme problem, but that after a couple of bad years the Giants would be contenders again. I think the window for Bonds to win with the Giants is closed. Let's give him the chance he deserves and be on our way to our own future.

Best to all,

Eric

posted by Eric @ 8:59 AM