13-11
Huh. Really? 13-11
What a weird first month it's been for the NL West.
The Dodgers lost their best player (Gagne), had what was thought to be a very poor offseason and currently have the best record in the National League. But the weird part about that is that they are only 1.5 games in first, because running a close second is ... Arizona? The Giants, losing the best player in the game to injuries and watching most of the team spend time on the DL are in third, at 13-11, and the Padres, who many thought would actually win this division, are in fourth at 11-14.
Wtf?
Ok, there are some answers to this and then a caveat.
The Dodgers: There are reasons why they're 16-8 (other than how crappy the rest of the NL West is). For one thing, while they lost Gagne, as performance-minded GMs often do, Paul DePodesta had a young no-name called Yency Brazoban ready to close games, and he's 8 for 9 this season. But the big story, at least to me, is that maybe DePo really is a genius:
Derek Lowe: 41.1 IP, 1.96 ERA / 1.06 WHIP / 26 K
No one (and I do mean no one) thought the deal he gave Lowe was a good idea. Lowe had a great 2004 playoffs but has been very mediocre over the bulk of his innings the last few years. And frankly, it's just 41 innings, but so far, DePo is looking smarter than the rest of us. In addition, how about another guy that people thought he overpaid for:
Jeff Kent: 87 AB; .450 OBP / .632 / 23 R / 20 RBI
Part of it can be ascribed to Jeff Kent finally being in his natural environment. Kent was born to be a Dodger, and was clearly uncomfortable everywhere else he played. He is finally where he belongs, and I never enjoyed hating a Dodger quite so much. He is, as some will know, the only player ever to win the MVP with the Giants and then go sign with the Dodgers. And with full disclosure, I never liked him.
There are other reasons, but essentially the Dodgers picked up (relative to expectations) an ace starter, a superstar slugger and a shutdown closer essentially out of nowhere. Especially in a weak division it doesn't take much else.
I'm not going to spend much ink on Arizona and San Diego - I think luck explains their differing records a this point. To wit:
Arizona: 15-10
San Diego: 11-14
Arizona: 109 runs scored; 114 runs allowed
San Diego: 107 runs scored; 110 runs allowed
These teams are playing identical baseball, but one is getting luckier. That wont' last.
And the Giants? 13-11; 125 runs scored, 119 runs allowed. So they're right about where they ought to be. Lose Bonds? No problem - we have Jason Ellison (1.384 OPS in 38 ABs) and Lance Niekro (.595 SLG) to fill in, not to mention Peter Happy himself, currently putting up a respectable .826 OPS as a full-time player. Lots of Giants are hitting - pretty much everyone other than Ray Durham (.278 SLG) and Marquis Grissom (.554 OPS) but as readers know, an April does does not a season make. It's great if the Giants can steal some wins by riding hot streaks by the likes of Niekro and Ellison, but if they're in it for the long hall, something's going to have be done. The pixie dust won't last forever.
posted by Eric @ 8:08 AM
14 Comments:
I don't think Ellison looking better than Grissom is pixie dust, I think that's reality.
And Peter Happy has been a useful bastard in his last couple of years, but he's turning that into simply being a decent player. His contract isn't that bad now...after one month of play, that is.
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