A problem of Vizquellian Proportions
It's not really that hard to divine what was going through the heads of the Giants' "brain trust" as they decided to sign Omar Vizquel to a 3-year, $12.25M deal. Their thinking on all of these decisions starts and stops with the utterly fallacious thinking that because the 2004 Giants were a 91-win team that scored 850 runs and missed the playoffs by one game, the 2005 Giants will be essentially the same team. Of course, with this impossibly foolish precept as the foundation for their thinking, they will proceed as if minor improvements will get the Giants those 1-2 extra wins and vault them into the playoffs in 2005. Winning in the playoffs, even under this analysis, is not a priority.
The thinking goes that the Giants middle-infield defense wasn't very good. The two shortstops on the 2004 roster, Deivi Cruz and Cody Ransom, are both poor-range defenders who don't flash particularly impressive leather. This, of course, is true. And as Tim pointed out in his review of shortstops below in the comments section, Vizquel represented a halfway decent 2005 stop-gap solution. And if they'd given him a 1-year, $4M contract with a mutual option year, by all means. Vizquel is still a decent player - he can play defense, draw walks, steal bases. I have no doubt we'll enjoy him in 2005. But for God's sake, the guy will be 38 when the season starts - teams with limited resources don't give 38-year-old players 3-year deals. Not everyone can be Barry Bonds (congrats on another well-deserved MVP, big guy) and it's unlikely that Vizquel is anything like him. Hell, the guy failed his physical when Cleveland tried to trade him to Seattle last year.
So basically Sabean signed a guy who is likely to help our team in 2005 and very likely to hurt our team in 2006 and 2007. He plays with a weak hand to begin with, and he plays it poorly. As I understand it, Vizquel had competing offers from several other teams. The winning move in such a scenario is to back out. Getting a guy for more than he's worth is the fabled "winner's curse" and that's what we have with Mr. Vizquel. In 2007 we'll have a $4.5M 40-year-old shortstop. Go Giants. For your enjoyment:
Vizquel:
Age 35 season: 582 AB .275 / .341 / .418
Age 36 season: 250 AB .244 / .321 / .336
Age 37 season: 567 AB .291 / .353 / .388
Shortstop X
Age 35 season: 583 AB / .293 / .390 / .420
Age 36 season: 396 AB / .313 / .389 / .487
Age 37 season: 156 AB / .256 / .373 / .372
Age 38 season: 507 AB / .245 / .305 / .367
Age 39 season: 241 AB / .282 / .345 / .382
Age 40 season: 346 AB / .289 / .352 / .419
It bears mentioning that Shortstop X is a better player than Omar Vizquel. And Shortstop X (Barry Larkin, obviously) didn't have to switch leagues after his age 37 season and move into one of the toughest ballparks in the NL to boot.
Go Giants.
posted by Eric @ 11:50 AM
4 Comments:
The full analysis has been posted elsewhere, but suffice it to say that I don't think the 2005 Giants are likely to get the same performances out of Snow, Cruz, Grissom, Feliz or (gasp) Bonds in 2005 that they got in 2004. Without improvement, I think it's fairly unlikely that the Giants will score 850 runs again.
This is Brad but I don't want a log-in. Omar is a magical defender but I agree he has the age and injury concerns. More problematic, in my opinion, is his attitude. When Omar gets excited he is great. He hits for average, he draws walks, he steals bases and he motivates. When Omar gets bored he flails at everything like he's facing a Tom Candiotti knuckle-ball and he doesn't hustle the way I know he can. At his age and with that price-tag I can't understand what the Giants were thinking. If Omar loses interest playing around all the old farts in SF you are in trouble. Watch for Omar and his electric yellow Porsche 911 - coming to your neighborhood soon. BTW - I lost Amit's address and forgot to send in my money for last season. Will you please send it to me before I get banned. Or I can just send you a check if you are the one who got shorted.
Hi Eric, bloggers and bloggettes (is that even a word? lol). I was blogging around looking for info on SBC Yahoo! and this post popped up and looked interesting. Although it's not exactly like SBC Yahoo! I still read most of the posts here.
Eric after reading your blog it reminded me to update mine. My passion for sports articles runs deep. If you are like me business is a constant; But a respite from it gives me a fresh outlook. My http://serendipitysuccess.blogspot.com/2005/11/update-to-steelers-climb-to-top-of-afc.html has a similar theme and sports articles plays important roles too. Football especially for most fans and partners is a highlight in the autumn and articles create great gatherings. Thanks for your this post.
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