Eric's Giants Blog

A perfect fit (and a pipe dream)

I have no doubt that I will talk about this right up until the day he signs with another team, but there is an available free agent player could potentially put the Giants over the top, in a way that's not flashy or massively expensive, but would require some work and medium amounts of money.

2004 was very good for this player, which is unfortunate from my perspective, since I'd still want him even if he'd had a more typical year. Here's what 2004 looked like:

219.2 IP; 3.48 ERA; 1.16 WHIP; 143 Ks; 26 BBs; 23 HR allowed

There's no question that in 2004 this was a very very good pitcher, especially when you consider that he pitched in 2004 for a team in a very friendly hitting environment. Anyone who knows me (which is everyone who reads this) already knows who this is, but I'll talk a little bit more about him in the abstract, so humor me.

This is a pitcher whose skill is clearly control. His strikeout rate is acceptable, but his walk rate is astronomically low. David Wells low. He allows contact, but his unwillingness to put extra guys on base makes this manageable. Now, compare 2004 to his last couple of years.

2003: 212.1 IP; 4.49 ERA; 1.27 WHIP; 120 Ks, 28 BBs, 32 HR allowed
2002: 118.1 IP; 4.72 ERA; 1.22 WHIP; 62 Ks, 20 BBs; 12 HR allowed
2001: 226 IP; 3.94 ERA; 1.15 WHIP; 137 Ks, 26 BBs; 24 HR allowed
2000: 226.2 UP; 4.45 ERA; 1.38 WHIP; 141 Ks; 51 BBs; 27 HR allowed

Let's throw out 2002 simply because it involved injuries and will skew the counting numbers. The three-year average of 2000, 2001 and 2003 look like this :

221.2 IP; 4.29 ERA; 1.29 WHIP; 133 Ks; 33 BBs; 28 HR allowed

Brad Radke, I hereby dub thee - SBC Park pitcher.

Brad Radke, age 32. Brad Radke, pitched his whole career in the AL, facing DH'ed lineups. Brad Radke, played his whole career for the Twins in the Metrodome. Brad Radke - only one year in the majors where he's thrown fewer than 210 innings. Brad Radke, who has pinpoint control. Brad Radke, who has one flaw in his game - allowing the long ball.

Think about it - this is a guy whose ERA is regularly in the mid-4's while his WHIP is in the 1.25 range. Pitchers with a discrepency of this kind are typically those who have trouble keeping the ball in the park. The Giants have a ballpark that helps pitchers like this tremendously.

Of course, as always, there's a problem. Well, a couple of problems. First off, Radke just finished the last year of his contract, a contract that was clearly from the previous era. In 2004 he made $10.75M, and earned it. His previous deal was a 4-year, $36M deal. Unfortunately, with the 2004 year he just had, and in his pitching prime, he is likely to get a deal not terribly dissimilar to this. He was considered by most to be the third-best pitcher in the AL this past year, after Johan Santana and Curt Schilling. Schilling, clearly a significantly better pitcher than Radke, but also quite a bit older, earned $12M at age 38 from the Red Sox this year, as part of a contract signed recently. My guess is that Radke is looking at something around 3 or 4 years at $8M a year.
And he'd be worth that and then some to the Giants.

Without going through and actually running numbers on park effects and a league-switch, I'd very roughly project the following numbers for 2005 if Radke pitched for the Giants (note that these numbers assume that his 2004 breakout was real but probably also represents something of a career season):

220 IP; 3.25 ERA; 1.18 WHIP; 165 K; 28 BB; 18 HR allowed

I believe this projection is conservative, and represents several factors.

1. The switch from the AL to the NL and away from the DH is good for a decrease in offense allowed and in increase in strikeouts, both because of facing hitters for the first time and by facing opposing pitchers.

2. The switch from the Metrodome to SBC park is likely to suppress home runs allowed, probably meaningfully.

3. I believe that at 32 Radke is in his pitching prime.

So for their $8M (or a little more), the Giants get a workhorse pitcher who doesn't give up free passes and whose one weakness is likely to be muted significantly by his pitching environment. I leave you with a comparison:

1. Jose Lima - park effects

1998-9 (Astrodome - yearly averages): 239.2 IP; 3.64 ERA; 178 K; 38 BB; 32 HR allowed

2000 (Enron/ Minute Maid): 196.1 IP; 6.65 ERA; 124 K; 68 BB; 48 HR allowed

2004 (Dodger Stadium): 170.1 IP (24 starts); 4.07 ERA; 93 K; 34 BB; 33 HR allowed

Now Lima's psycho and even more prone to the long ball than Radke, but I'm just saying...

posted by Eric @ 3:13 PM