Eric's Giants Blog

Maybe Moises

I suppose it was inevitable that this rumor / news would come up. Despite playing for the ultimate players' manager, a guy that gets more out of his players than anyone else in the game, Moises Alou is talking about leaving the Chicago Cubs and coming to San Francisco to play for his dad. The real question is - do we want him?

The good

He can still hit. Alou was a great hitter this year and stayed healthy. His .293 / .361 / .557 line over 601 (!!!) ABs for Chicago made him extremely valuable, and an all-star. He hit 39 home runs. For those who care about such things, 106 runs and 106 RBI. I know that "Goliath himself couldn't protect Barry Bonds" but having Alou instead of the collection of scraps we had hitting 5th this year probably would have put Barry at 150+ runs scored and the Giants in the playoffs.

He got better as the season wore in in 2004. Pre-break: .836. Post-break: 1.017. (!) He's actually been a second-half player for years.

The Bad

He's old. 38. Imagine a starting outfield of Bonds (40), Grissom (38) and Alou (38). He's managed to stay healthy the last two years, but injuries are an issue.

He can't field. I mean, he's a left fielder with a bad arm. We're talking about having him play right field at Pac Bell Park? That seems like a very bad idea. Playing right in our yard is tough, and he's not even a particularly good left fielder. We might gain on offense (well, we WILL gain on offense) if he hits like he did last year, but there will be a lot of cringe-worthy defense if he's playing right.

Wrigley really helped him. Over the last three years with the Cubs, he logged 1,650 ABs total (really good for a brittle guy). Look at this:

Home: 782 AB; .304 / .381 / .559
Road: 868 AB; .264 /.327 / .417

These splits were never so stark as they were in 2004:

Home: 301 AB; .339 / .405 / .714
Road: 300 AB; .247 / .316 / .400

Those are Coors-like splits, folks, and unless we think there's a good reason that they are misleading, attention must be paid. For reference:

Tucker: .256 / .353 / .412

The Ridiculous

They aren't talking about having hit 3rd. They aren't talking about moving Bonds back to 3rd and having Alou hit 4th. No, they're talking about having Alou hit 5th, presumably leaving the likes of JT Snow, Pedro Feliz or AJ Pierzynski hitting third. Madness is sweeping this country in more ways than one.

Conclusion

I can't sign onto this one. Given his age and his home/road splits I just don't see Alou hitting like he did in 2004 for the Giants in 2005. And he'd need to hit that way to be a real asset. More likely he'll hit somewhere in the same vicinity that Tucker did or maybe a little better while being a terrible liability in right field and giving fly ball pitchers (of which the Giants have several) fits as balls dropped all over the field. I started this entry hoping I could sign onto Moises Alou for one year, $4.5M, but I'm afraid I just can't do it.

Which almost assuredly means it will happen.

posted by Eric @ 4:45 PM