Dare we hope...
Ah yes. The offseason, and so shortly into it we're already talking about prospects. Which, for a Giants fan, is always a dicey proposition. With 2004 stats and some 2003 books in hand, I'll look at a couple of Giants farmhands every time I do this. We'll see if we have any legitimate basis for optimism.
Boring, I suppose, but I think any conversation about Giants minor-league players has to start with Matt Cain, even though I don't believe he'll make it to the majors this year. That the Giants' best prospect is a 19-year-old pitcher is, of course, depressing, but he's a pretty impressive 19-year-old pitcher.
Cain was drafted in the first round of the 2002 draft right out of high school. His 2003 season in the Sally league was a terrific success in terms of performance, but of course was also marred with an elbow injury. He made just 14 starts, but averaged almost 7 strikeouts per start. So that's nice. 2004 was a good year for Cain, one in which he certainly solidified his prospect status. For one thing, he began the season at single-A San Jose as a 19-year-old, which is not outrageous but still a stretch for a guy his age. He was pretty dominant at San Jose.
He made 13 starts for San Jose, averaging about 5 1/2 innings per start. I don't have his pitch counts in front of me, but I'm at least hopeful that this indicates a level of care with his arm that is utterly crucial at his age. His numbers at San Jose were eye-catching:
72.2 IP; 1.86 ERA; 58 hits; 17 BBs; 89 Ks
Let's pause for a second here, only because I so enjoy looking at that stat line. This pitcher is 19 and only walked about 2 batters per 9 innings while striking out 11. A 5.5-1 K-BB ratio. At age 19. I don't care that it's in the California league. Most pitchers with incredible stuff can't throw it for strikes initially. Cain can. And so the Giants front office, seeing a level of success this tremendous (more strikeouts than baserunners), send the fast-tracked Cain up the latter to AA Norwich for the second half of the season. And Cain more than held his own. He made 15 starts for Norwich, totalling 86 innings, or about 5.7 IP/start. He totaled 158.2 innings this year. I think that's probably 15 too many, but it's a quibble (I hope). Cain was a very good pitcher at AA, putting up the following numbers:
86 IP; 3.35 ERA; 73 hits; 40 BBs; 72 Ks
Clearly this is not the same level of performance he enjoyed at San Jose. Duh. But he still struck out nearly twice as many as he walked. My guess is that as a 19-year-old at AA he didn't quite trust his stuff as much after getting hit hard initially. So what can we expect from Cain? Well, the fast track that he's on would suggest that he starts the year back at AA. If he succeeds he could see a promotion midseason to AAA Fresno and then could compete for a job in 2006. In a strange parallel universe, Cain makes the San Francisco Giants as a short reliever out of the bullpen - sort of the Johan Santana approach. Use him as what would likely be a highly effective reliever on the big club for a year or two and then make him a starter in 2006. The Giants don't typically work this way, so I consider this extremely unlikely. But I think a couple of years of throwing 80 innings instead of 160 would be good for his exceedingly valuable arm.
I guess we'll also look at last year's darling, Merkin Valdez. After a similarly dominating 2003 for Hagerstown in the Sally League, 2004 was an off-year for the Magician, although not as bad as some might think. He pitched a total of 84 innings this year at four different levels, from San Jose all the way to San Francisco. Predictably, the tougher the competition was, the worse Valdez pitched. The numbers sum it up better than I can:
San Jose: 35.2 IP (7 starts); 2.52 ERA; 30 hits; 5 BBs; 40 Ks
Norwich: 41.2 IP (7 starts, 3 relief appearances); 4.32 ERA; 35 hits; 15 BBs; 15 Ks
Fresno: 5 IP (1 start); 7.20 ERA; 6 hits; 4 BBs; 5 Ks
San Francisco: 1.2 IP (2 relief appearances); 27.00 ERA; 4 hits; 3 BBs; 2 Ks
And what did we really expect? Rick Ankiel in 2000? This is the Giants and Valdez had pitched in LOW-A in 2003. So while they were hoping to have K-Rod on their hands, I'd characterize 2004 as an experiment in ultra fasttracking gone wrong. Valdez is 22 (we think) and while it was reasonable to hope for a meteoric rise from the Sally League to the Pacific Cloast League, we shouldn't be terribly surprised that it didn't happen. I'd toss out the tiny sample numbers from AAA and MLB (while noting that even though he got knocked around over that 6.2 inning period, he still struck out 7) and look at the 77.1 IP he threw between A and AA. If I told you that his season following his prospect-status breakout in 2003 was marred by injury but that he threw 77.1 IP (14 starts) of 3.49 / 1.10 / 75-22 BB ball, I think we'd all agree that this represented a pretty decent step forward for a guy with minimal minor-league experience.
So what can we expert from Merkin in 2005? Looked at through a lens that doesn't account for the San Francisco Giants' bullpen woes that resulted in him getting called up in August and his one bad start at Fresno, the guy pitched extremely well for San Jose and then held his own at Norwich. He may some day wind up as the Giants closer (I hope not - if he can add a third pitch and build arm strength, he's much more valuable as a starter, and besides - that's what Aardsma's for), but for now he should be starting for Norwich, with with a promotion to Fresno if he can get his ERA into the mid 3s and keep his K/BB ratio where it was in San Jose this past year. Bringing him into San Francisco's bullpen as a reliever (similar to Cain above) is also an option, but he's almost 4 years older than Cain, so I'm not sure this is as compelling, particularly given the need to enhance his pitch repertoire, something he's not likely to do as a reliever in the majors.
And since we talked about two guys with dominating stuff, let's talk about someone without it. Let's talk a little bit about Brad Hennessey. I really like this guy, even though I never wanted to see him on the 2004 Giants. He's a story. He missed almost two years to cancer and came back in 2003 to pitch for Hagerstown. He wasn't great there (walked too many for a guy with his stuff) but what did anyone expect? 2004 was probably going to determine if Hennessey had a future, and I think he proved enough to stick around, barely. Hennessey threw a total of 171 innings this year at 3 levels - AA, AAA and MLB. Looked at individually:
AA - 101 IP (18 starts); 3.56 ERA; 106 hits; 34 BBs; 55 Ks
AAA - 35.2 IP (5 starts); 2.02 ERA; 26 hits; 15 BBs; 16 Ks
MLB - 34.1 IP (7 starts); 4.98 ERA; 42 hits; 15 BBs; 25 Ks
Looked at in terms of a season:
171 IP (30 starts, or 5.7 IP); 3.52 ERA; 174 hits; 64 BBs; 96 Ks
Unfortunately, the 5 starts at Fresno look like the fluke here. The numbers for the Giants are about what you'd expect based on his performance at Norwich. Hennessey walks too many for the amount of strikeouts he gets and doesn't look like an innings-eater. If he can refine his control, he's got a shot to be a good #4 starter or long reliever, but I think that's about what we're looking at from a guy who'll turn 25 during the offseason. My guess is that he'll start at Fresno and will only make it out of Fresno if the Giants need help.
One more, since we have to at least pretend the Giants have position players in their system.
I've never seen Mike Cervenak play, and don't know a lot about him. He hasn't made any of my books (Although I'm guessing he will this year after his year at Norwich) but at least based on 2004 he has more promise than just about any other Giants position player in the minors. Cervenak is a third baseman who played most of the year at Norwich and enjoyed a brief trial at Fresno. At AA he looked like the type of player who doesn't typically get drafted by the Giants:
410 ABs; .337 / .414 / .583 / 21 home runs / 53 Ks
Of course, it will surprise no one that the .337 batting average actually scares me, but the guy drew 52 walks in 400 ABs, which is (barely) acceptable for a genuine hitting prospect. In his time at Fresno he continued to show his power, but predictably his average fell:
44 ABs; .250 / .267 / .614 / 5 home runs / 7 Ks
In those 44 Abs, Cervenak didn't draw one walk. The "isolated patience" was actually just a hit-by-pitch. This worries me, as I don't want another Pedro Feliz on the team. Cervenak's not a prospect (he's 28) but I wonder if he can take enough pitches to put Edgardo Alfonzo's numbers for one twentieth the price.
We'll look at a few more later. It's time for football now.
posted by Eric @ 8:24 AM
48 Comments:
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