Eric's Giants Blog

Standing Pat

I think a few were expecting to see some off-topic election ranting in this space, and truth be told, I considered it. But that's not what this space is for, and so I'll refrain, and stick to why we're here - the Giants.

The Giants made a number of unsurprising moves, and these moves say a lot about what we can expect in the next year. Suffice it to say, we're going to have a very similar to team to the one we had last year.

Deivi Cruz signed: This isn't any kind of surprise. Cruz has, as I and many others have noted, a surprising and helpful season for the Giants in 2004. Is anyone shocked that they read this to mean that, at age 31, he's become a better player? Here's what Cruz did for a few years before getting to the Giants:

2003: .250 / .269 / .378 over 548 ABs with the Orioles
2002: .263 / .294 / .366 over 514 ABs with the Padres
2001: .256 / .291 / .379 over 414 ABs with the Tigers

So the question is, which is the real Cruz? That 1,500 AB span or his 397 ABs of .292 / .322 / .431 in 2004 with the Giants? His offense is highly dependent on batting average, and .292 was his highest since 2000. If he hits .292 again, he'll be valuable. If he regresses to the previous 3 years and hits .258, he won't be.

The good news is at least they didn't pay too much for him. After the team gave Neifi Perez a 2-year, multi-million dollar contract I was terrified at what they'd do with Cruz. But in a rare move, he was signed to a one-year, $800,000 (guaranteed) deal with some incentives. At this price, I don't feel bad about him being on the roster even if he isn't very good.

JT Snow's option picked up: How great was Snow in 2004? And how unlikely that he'll be similarly great in 2005? Snow was largely considered to be on his way out, of the Giants and possibly of the league at age 36, but then he put up an Edgar Martinez-like line in 2004 and so now he'll be back, for $2M in 2005, presumably playing 1B against right-handed pitchers and playing good defense. Obviously if he recreates 2004 he's very valuable for $2M, but if he returns to the previous few years (where he still got on base, but didn't hit for anything like the average or power of 2004) he'll be merely acceptable. Snow isn't really a problem, given his likely .380+ OBP, but first base was an area where the Giants could have improved, and now won't.

Here's what really bugs me, as will surprise no one. They also picked up Marquis Grissom's $2.5M option. I mean come on - how much blood do you want to squeeze from a stone? It's hard to believe the Giants still haven't realized that Grissom is a platoon player. I just don't see how it's hard to figure it out. He wasn't good overall in 2004 like he was in 2003 (although still performed over my projection):

2004: .279 / .323 / .450 over 562 ABs. Of course, the problem is really this:

Vs. RHP: .266 / .311 / .404 over 413 ABs
VS. LHP: .315 / .356 / .577 over 149 ABs

Are you really trying to tell me that those 413 ABs can't be put to more productive use? Grissom isn't Andruw Jones, Jim Edmonds or Tsyoshi Shinjo in the field anymore. He once was, but now he's 37 and will turn 38 in April, and there aren't many good 38-year-old center fielders. Just for giggles:

Dustan Mohr vs. RHP: .297 / .433 / .466 over 148 ABs

Mohr looks a little silly, but he could play CF in a platoon with Grissom and actually give the Giants good offense out of the CF position. Of course, we've been over this before with other players and it hasn't happened, and won't now. The Giants have an expensive weapon in Grissom that they will make into a moderately-priced liability by playing him full-time. It's obviously wrong and has been obviously wrong for several years and they will continue to do it.

Finally, they also picked up the $2.5M option on Brett "Bombko" Tomko. I guess that's what he gets for pitching really REALLY well down the stretch (which admittedly, he did). I don't have too much to say about this. Tomko pitched well enough to be worth $2.5M in 2005, but I don't believe he'll pitch the way he did in the second half. If he does, and gives the Giants about 200 innings of slightly above-average pitching, he'll be a reasonable investment. Still, I've already gone on the record that I want the Giants to sign Brad Radke, and that creates a logjam in the rotation. At that point, we'd be looking at Schmidt, Radke, Rueter, Tomko, Williams and Lowry all deserving of rotation spots, with Foppert on the outside looking in. They say you can never have too much starting pitching, and I generally agree, but if Tomko pitches like he did in the first half he's a liability. We can hope that his second half represents a breakout. He's 31. It's possible. And that second half (3.15 ERA / 6.6 innings per start /2-1 K-BB ratio after the break) was really very impressive.

Strange note on Tomko - he pitched far better on the road than at SBC. I have no real explanation for this.

Just to show there is some modicum of sanity in the front office, at least Jason Christianson's $3.25M option was declined. Christianson never got anywhere near the flak, but his contract was probably a worse investment than Marvin Benard's. At least Benard used to be good.

So at this point improvement is going to have to come either in right field, catcher or pitching. I think we all expect movement within the bullpen, and Tucker's got another year under contract, so we're looking at basically the same team as last year, but with (in theory) better relievers. I'm sure the thinking is that we missed the playoffs by a game, so getting a better set of relievers will push us over the top ... into a first-round playoff exit. And even that assumption is flawed, since that assumes that none of Bonds, Snow or Cruz decline at all from 2004. All are likely to do so, as is Lowry.

Will continue to post on moves. If the Giants sign Magglio Ordonez to play right field, then we'll talk about the playoffs.

posted by Eric @ 10:37 AM