Eric's Giants Blog

What about Randy Johnson?

Remember the "White Flag Trade"? The "Matt Williams Trade"? The "Jason Schmidt for Armando Rios trade"??? (that one was my favorite)

Even though in some years his moves have been decidedly underwhelming (in 2000 the Giants' big midseason acquisition was Doug Henry), Brian Sabean has developed a deserved reputation for willingness to make midseason moves to fill what he perceives to be holes in the team and to bolster what are usually contention teams' playoff chances and strength.

So let's look at the current situation in the NL West:

LA 48-38 0
SF 49-40 .5
SD 47-41 2
COL 36-51 12.5
AZ 31-58 18.5

Clearly we're looking at a tightly-contested 3-team race. This wasn't so tough to predict, although I admit LA is better than I thought they would be (mostly because Adrian Beltre got back on the track he was supposed to be on and Paul DePodesta picked up Milton Bradley. Career seasons from normally non-hitting players like Alex Cora and Cesar Izturis have also contributed and of course they still have a dominating bullpen), but these three teams are all fairly closely matched. San Diego is still the most talented in my opinion, and I think the Giants will need to add some pieces if they want to compete through the long stretches of July and August, especially since I still believe that even though the Giants would be the NL wild card if the season ended today, ultimately the wild card will come from the NL Central.

Looking at this another way:

LA 382-352 (+30)
SF 454-437 (+17)
SD 377-360 (+17)

Keeping in mind that the Giants play in an extreme pitchers' ballpark, their pythagorean numbers are really quite astonishing. The Giants are an offensive juggernaut this year, although you'd never know it by looking at the lineup card. In fact, the Giants have scored more runs this season than all but two teams this year. On of those teams is St. Louis, who have scored exactly one more run than the Giants and the other is Colorado with 465, and they doesn't count for obvious reasons.

If you adjust for ballpark effects, the Giants had the best offense in the NL during the first half. And I think that bears repeating.

The Giants had the best offense in the NL during the first half.

So even though the instinct of most Giants fans is almost assuredly that the team needs more offense, if the first half is at all indicative of the true state of the team (and half a season usually has at least some predictive value unless there are obvious reasons why it should be discounted), it's the pitching that needs help. Big help.

The Giants' 437 runs allowed is worse than all but three other NL teams. One of those is pythagorean overperformer Cincinnati, who is 47-41 despite a run differential of -31 (411/452). Of course, that's not surprising - other than Danny Graves, how many Reds pitchers can you name? Expect to see the Reds play substantially below .500 in the second half. The other two teams are Arizona (499) and of course Colorado (525). Arizona's woes are testament to why you need five starting pitchers and not two and Colorado, as I said before, doesn't count.

So to go with the Giants league-leading offense, they've had among the worst pitching staffs in the league. If you adjust for ballpark you might argue that it's the worst in the NL, but I probably wouldn't. Either way, you're looking at a team that has been clubbing its way into contention, and that informs what ought to be done going forward.

To get it out of the way - damn right they need a closer. Anyone who is familiar with my ranting knows I'm not a fan of paying a good reliever a lot of extra money so he can collect saves. That has NEVER meant that having a bad reliever close is a good idea. Matt Herges is god-awful. Just horrid. He's 22 for 28 in save chances. That's 78%. That's just bad. A league-average reliever should close out around 82% of opportunities. He has a 1.61 WHIP. I don't know why Herges can't close, but it looks like he's in the same category as Arthur Rhodes - good pitchers who just can't close for whatever reason. Call it mental block, call it lack of clutchness, call it whatever you want, just don't call for Herges when you have a one-run lead. Get someone in there who can handle it and put Herges back into the setup role where he's been successful.

The Giants do need to add someone good or at least decent. There are plenty of guys out there who can do it and plenty of teams who would be happy to have a contract gone. Call Seattle and ask about Eddie Guardado. Call the Mets if and when they decide they aren't going to make it this year and talk about Braden Looper. Hell, I'd rather take a chance on a guy like David Riske of Cleveland or Tampa Bay's Lance Carter - these are guys with a little closing experience who can pitch. It would be hard for most major-league relievers to be as bad as Herges has been.

But even though I agree that a closer is needed, let's talk about something a little more exciting today. First let's look at the Giants pitching rotation, which based on their overall runs numbers need serious help:

Jason Schmidt: 122 IP / 2.51 ERA / 0.96 WHIP / 11-2 / 134 Ks Grade: A+
Jerome Williams: 102 IP / 4.66 ERA / 1.28 WHIP / 8-6 / 70 Ks Grade: B
Kirk Rueter: 104 IP / 4.85 ERA / 1.58 WHIP / 5-6 / 33 Ks Grade: D+
Dustin Hermanson 87 IP / 4.34 ERA / 1.38 WHIP / 3-3 / 63 Ks Grade: C-
Brett Tomko: 94 IP / 4.98 ERA / 1.54 WHIP / 4-5 / 45 Ks Grade: D

Keeping in mind what SBC park typically does to a pitchers' numbers, you can see that the Giants have three really bad starting pitchers in there. I love Kirk Rueter, but he has really stunk up the joint this year, and Hermanson and Tomko are little more than bodies to throw inning, although Hermanson has given the Giants the kind of innings a team can live with while Tomko has not.

There are no internal answers coming unless Jesse Foppert makes the most amazing recovery from Tommy John surgery in the history of the procedure (I'm rooting for him), so Sabean will probably have to go outside the organization.

Which leads me to my title - what about Randy Johnson?

What about Randy Johnson?

He has recently made some noise about being willing to accept a trade to a team that has "a real chance to win the world series". Everyone thinks that means the Yankees, where he'd slot in nicely in front of Mussina and Vazquez, or Boston where he'd create a trio of himself, his old friend Curt Schilling and Pedro Martinez.

But what about the Giants? What about the team with the best player of the modern era, the #1 offense in the NL, the best starter in the NL and a desperate need for another quality starter? Johnson would actually be the #2 starter on the Giants behind Jason Schmidt, and would give San Francisco the kind of 1-2 punch that Arizona had the year they won the series. Johnson-Schilling was all that team had going for it and they went all the way. They had an offense with one outstanding player (Luis Gonzalez) and a bunch of stalwarts. They even had bullpen problems.

With Randy Johnson the Giants would probably become co-favorites to win the NL along with Chicago. A three-man rotation of Schmidt, Johnson and Jerome Williams would compare favorably to those thrown up by any other team, with Chicago's Prior / Wood / Zambrano axis being the most competitive.

Now generally teams don't make trades within their division. But why, really? During the offseason, when teams are trying to compete, it makes perfect sense, but now? Arizona knows they aren't going anywhere in 2004 and Randy Johnson is in his 40s. Hell, if anything it makes sense to trade for young players from a divisional rival, because as you set yourself up to rebuild for the future you're taking pieces away from a team that will be a direct competitor in that future-state where you envision yourself contending.

Of course, I have no idea what Arizona is asking for, and I have bemoaned the woeful state of the Giants' farm system plenty of times in this space. But if the other contenders for Randy Johnson are Boston and New York, neither of them have much to offer either. So let's see Johnson stay in the NL, stay on the West coast, and play for the good guys for a while.

(and after all this, he'll go to the Braves)

posted by Eric @ 7:45 AM