Saturday, May 07, 2005

Getting Excited about Todd Linden

There are plenty of reasons why I shouldn't write this post.

The Giants don't develop position players.
It's only been 100 ABs.
It's obviously a pathetic attempt to distract from the major-league team.

But hey, it's been a few days, the big-league club isn't giving me anything to write about (I refuse to talk about Barry's knee) and as they go today trying to stay above .500 knowing that The Man isn't coming back any time soon, that the New Closer is essentially done for the season and The Leadoff Man can't stay on the field, I looked around for something to feel good about.

And found Mr. Linden. For those who follow the Giants closely, there was a lot of buzz about Linden once upon a time. He had a great little season in AA a couple of years ago, the type of season that makes one say, "This guy could really be a decent regular. He's not going to be Albert Pujols, but he could be Paul Konerko or Brad Wilkerson or Ryan Klesko". Then came his rather disappointing AAA season last year and his poor performance during ill-advised callups and suddenly he became another failed Giants prospect.

Normally the story ends here. He turns into Tony Torcato or JR Phillips or Dante Powell, spends a few seasons hitting .250 with minimal power in Fresno and then gets waived. Except that maybe we all thought Linden was good for a reason, and maybe the 2004 season was just a "building" season, and that he'd figure it out during his second time through that level.

The difference between Linden and the Torcatos of the world is that he walks. That was what I liked so much about his AA performance - his hitting for average and power were good, but plenty of guys can hit .290 with 25 homers in AA. If they don't back it up by showing that they can lay off the bad pitches, you generally expect them to get exposed at higher levels as they pitches get harder to hit and the pitchers are better at locating them. A guy who can hit .300 with 25 homers by hitting mistake pitches in the zone in AA often turns into a guy who hits .240 with 10 homers in AAA and strikes out like crazy. But a player who hit .290 with 25 homers in AA by swinging and crushing good pitches but also took 80 walks when the pitchers couldn't find the zone - that's someone to get excited about and that's what we all thought we had in Linden.

So anyway, he's kicking some serious ass at Fresno. He's putting up numbers (SAMPLE SIZE ALERT) that make one think that maybe we're talking about future Jim Edmonds or Brian Giles type if we're really really lucky.

So yes, it's only 100 ABs but...

Linden is hitting .320 - that's good, but honestly hitting .320 over 100 ABs doesn't get me so excited. Mike Cervenak is hitting .310. Lots of guys can get 30 singles in 100 ABs at some point in the season, so let's keep going.

Linden has walked 20 times. 20 in 100 ABs. It's too hard to look at 100 ABs as 1/5 of a 500 AB season and see 100 walks. A guy who walks 100 times in AAA is likely to be a good major league regular. Of course, that assumes that the next 400 Abs will be like the last 100, which is a terrible assumption (not least because if he hits like this he won't be in Fresno at the all-star break). But his current OBP is .439, which is absolutely outstanding at AAA.

He's hitting for power, too. He's hit 8 homers and 7 doubles in those 100 ABs. His slugging % is .630, again outstanding for the high minors.

The bad in the eyes of many is that he's striking out a lot - 26 punchouts in 100 ABs means over 100 through a full season. My views on this topic are well known - the walks mean he's only swinging at good pitches. Even without the .320 average the strikeouts don't bother me much as long as he walks are still there. 26 Ks to 20 BBs is fine.

And just for a little bonus (and to make it obvious that I play fantasy baseball) he's got 3 steals in 3 attempts this year.

So just for fun, if we project out a 500 AB season for Linden this year we'd get the following line:

.320 / .439 / .630; 40 HR; 115 RBI; 130 runs scored; 100 BB, 130 K, 15 SB

That all being said, if I can come back 6 weeks from now and report that his second hundred ABs were as good as his first, I'll be able to state with more confidence that the Giants have something potentially special on their hands.

Until then, I'll just be a little excited about what he's doing over there in Fresno.

posted by Eric @ 1:58 PM 23 comments

Monday, May 02, 2005

13-11

Huh. Really? 13-11

What a weird first month it's been for the NL West.

The Dodgers lost their best player (Gagne), had what was thought to be a very poor offseason and currently have the best record in the National League. But the weird part about that is that they are only 1.5 games in first, because running a close second is ... Arizona? The Giants, losing the best player in the game to injuries and watching most of the team spend time on the DL are in third, at 13-11, and the Padres, who many thought would actually win this division, are in fourth at 11-14.

Wtf?

Ok, there are some answers to this and then a caveat.

The Dodgers: There are reasons why they're 16-8 (other than how crappy the rest of the NL West is). For one thing, while they lost Gagne, as performance-minded GMs often do, Paul DePodesta had a young no-name called Yency Brazoban ready to close games, and he's 8 for 9 this season. But the big story, at least to me, is that maybe DePo really is a genius:

Derek Lowe: 41.1 IP, 1.96 ERA / 1.06 WHIP / 26 K

No one (and I do mean no one) thought the deal he gave Lowe was a good idea. Lowe had a great 2004 playoffs but has been very mediocre over the bulk of his innings the last few years. And frankly, it's just 41 innings, but so far, DePo is looking smarter than the rest of us. In addition, how about another guy that people thought he overpaid for:

Jeff Kent: 87 AB; .450 OBP / .632 / 23 R / 20 RBI

Part of it can be ascribed to Jeff Kent finally being in his natural environment. Kent was born to be a Dodger, and was clearly uncomfortable everywhere else he played. He is finally where he belongs, and I never enjoyed hating a Dodger quite so much. He is, as some will know, the only player ever to win the MVP with the Giants and then go sign with the Dodgers. And with full disclosure, I never liked him.

There are other reasons, but essentially the Dodgers picked up (relative to expectations) an ace starter, a superstar slugger and a shutdown closer essentially out of nowhere. Especially in a weak division it doesn't take much else.

I'm not going to spend much ink on Arizona and San Diego - I think luck explains their differing records a this point. To wit:

Arizona: 15-10
San Diego: 11-14

Arizona: 109 runs scored; 114 runs allowed
San Diego: 107 runs scored; 110 runs allowed

These teams are playing identical baseball, but one is getting luckier. That wont' last.

And the Giants? 13-11; 125 runs scored, 119 runs allowed. So they're right about where they ought to be. Lose Bonds? No problem - we have Jason Ellison (1.384 OPS in 38 ABs) and Lance Niekro (.595 SLG) to fill in, not to mention Peter Happy himself, currently putting up a respectable .826 OPS as a full-time player. Lots of Giants are hitting - pretty much everyone other than Ray Durham (.278 SLG) and Marquis Grissom (.554 OPS) but as readers know, an April does does not a season make. It's great if the Giants can steal some wins by riding hot streaks by the likes of Niekro and Ellison, but if they're in it for the long hall, something's going to have be done. The pixie dust won't last forever.

posted by Eric @ 8:08 AM 14 comments