And... we're back.
Ok, I know that all 3 or 4 of my readers are feeling very betrayed by the lack of entries these last few weeks. A couple of responses to that - I was out of the country for a piece of it, and didn't have much to say about baseball. But more on point, you didn't really need me and my overly critical rantings during the layoff, now did you? I mean, the Giants have been playing like crazy, including a 10-game win streak. Who saw that coming? Obviously I didn't, based on the very public record of this blog. So all there is to do now is look at what's happened, and what is likely to happen going forward.
What happened?
Jason Schmidt pitched a 144-pitch gem, and somehow his arm is still attached to his body. He has been the most dominant starter in the national league (in baseball?) since coming off the disabled list, and is the definition of a staff ace. Every time he goes out there the Giants have a great chance of winning.
But there's a lot more to it than that. A lot of it has to do with previous holes getting miraculously filled internally. (that sounded a lot worse than it was meant to, btw)
Shortstop has been a huge problem, as I've pointed out many times. Yet recently instead of the offensive disaster that is Neifi Perez, the Giants have had a version of Deivi Cruz who's hitting .326 (after a 5 for 5 night last night) with very nice (for a shortstop) rate stats of .371 / .453. I've said it before and I'll say it again - going from Neifi Perez to even a league average player is worth several wins over the course of a season. While it's only over about a hundred ABs, Cruz is playing well above the normal offensive level for a shortstop, and his defense, while not as spectacular as Neifi's, is quite acceptable.
Third base has also been a problem, with my good friend Pedro Feliz playing some of the time and an underperforming Edgardo Alfonzo playing the rest of the time. What happened? Well, Feliz hasn't fallen apart nearly as badly as I thought he would. His OBP is exactly .300, which is really bad, but not as bad as I was expecting, and amazingly he continues to get enough fastballs to pound into the stands every once in a while, and he's sitting at .484 SLG, which really isn't bad for a third baseman who plays at Pac Bell Park. But Feliz is mostly playing first these days with JT Snow mercifully on the disabled list, leaving the aforementioned Alfonzo at third base. If I had to point out one reason for the Giants' surge, it's Alfonzo hitting 5th. His overall numbers still aren't very good (.344 / .399) but in the last month he's put up a .371 / .481 line, almost exactly what I thought he was capable of before the season started (but of course I cut him off my fantasy team shortly before he got hot) with a crazy 29 RBI (nice to hit behind someone with a .600+ OBP, isn't it Edgardo?).
What else? Right field - Michael Tucker. I'm shaking my head right now. Tucker is having the best season of his career this season, and given how cold he was the first month or so it's even more staggering. At .384 / .478, Tucker looks like a really good player. I'll say that again - Michael Tucker is really good this year. In the last month he's basically been Jim Thome. .446 / .642 over 81 ABs. Let me reiterate - those are numbers posted by Michael Tucker. In real life. AJ Pierzynksi has decided to start hitting. In June his OPS is over 1.000. Maybe that's why Sabean traded for him.
Other things - Bonds is pretty good. Grissom is still having a very good year. The rest of the rotation isn't good, but the team is scoring so many runs that it isn't really mattering very much. And the team continues to be somewhat lucky, outperforming it's pythagorean projection by a fair bit (they have still allowed more runs than they've scored, yet are 7 games above .500).
What's going to happen? Hell if I know. If the Giants get career seasons from Barry Bonds (who despite being less red-hot as of late is still posting the best OPS of his career, at 1.398), Jason Schmidt, Michael Tucker, Marquis Grissom and Deivi Cruz, and if Edgardo Alfonzo and Pedro Feliz play like average corner outfielders, the Giants have a pretty good team. In fact, the Giants might be a couple games further out front if Matt Herges wasn't a sub-replacement level closer (as I've discussed, replacement-level closers convert in the 83-86% range, and Herges is 18 for 23, or 78%). In fact, the NL West is so sorry that the Giants can win it if those guys (Tucker, Alfonzo, Cruz, Feliz, Pierzynksi) play like a league-average or slightly better group of hitters, because as I've said plenty of times, you surround Barry Bonds with league average hitters and you have a dominant offense. He's that good. And if the offense is dominant, a pitching staff of Jason Schmidt and a bunch of scrubs can probably keep the team in games. After taking last night's game, I'm excited about Giants baseball for the first time all season.
Did I mention that the Giants are in first place?
posted by Eric @ 10:57 AM
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